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Ninepoint Silver Equities Class

March 2018 Commentary

Volatility continued to plague the broader equity markets in the month of March. In our previous commentary, we had commented on the resiliency of gold bullion in the face of rising volatility across equities, bonds and currencies. This did not change in March as gold bullion rose 0.54% in U.S dollar terms. Over the same time-frame, the S&P 500 declined by 2.54%, while the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/TSX Composite declined by 2.79% and 0.16% respectively. For the month of March, the Ninepoint Silver Equities Fund gained 1.76%, while the MSCI Silver Select Index (CAD) added 3.90% in the same period.

We view the recent increase in volatility as a symptom of broader shifts occurring across multiple asset classes. Equity markets are trying to figure their way around increased risks arising from rising trade and geopolitical tensions while also attempting to quantify the current economic backdrop. Let’s also not forget that central banks around the world are in a process of reducing their balance sheet, taking away the enormous amount of monetary stimulus markets had grown used to over the years. The current environment is exceptionally bullish for precious metals and while silver has languished, we have seen gold continue to behave exceptionally well as a result. This leads us to believe that silver is biding its time to shine. Based on our work, gold’s outlook, especially over the next twelve months could not be brighter. We see the metal primed for a move beyond $1400/oz in the coming months as the U.S. dollar continues its slide lower. This move would hugely benefit silver bullion and silver equities as they are seen as a derivative play on gold. We continue to believe that silver equities stand to benefit handsomely as the bull market in gold bullion translates into a bull market for precious metals equities at large.

The three largest contributors to March fund performance were First Majestic Silver, Wheaton Precious Metals and Fortuna Silver Mines. First Majestic’s stock recovered after a sharp sell-off in January and February post their acquisition of the San Dimas mine and the announcement of a US$150 million convertible senior note offering. Wheaton Precious also regained ground after an 11.6% drop in February despite First Majestic acquiring Primero Mining and its Mexican San Dimas mine. The deal removed the overhang on Wheaton Precious from Primero’s potential bankruptcy and restructured silver stream on San Dimas. Fortuna Silver reported a solid fourth quarter and continues to build its Lindero project in Argentina.

The three largest detractors from March performance were Industrias Penoles, Excellon Resources and Dolly Varden Silver. Penoles reported strong Q4 results, but corrected after performing well in December and January. Excellon continued to correct after reporting weak Q4 production and guiding to weaker than previously expected Q1 production. The Company will release a new reserve and resource report and new mine plan in April. Dolly Varden announced an $8.9 million exploration program for the 2018 season. The program will focus on resource delineation, particularly in the areas of new discoveries, but will also include exploration of the prospective mineral camp.

 

1 All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F units; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at March 30, 2018; e) 2012 annual returns are from 02/28/12 to 12/31/12. The index is 100% MSCI ACWI Select Silver Miners IMI (CAD) Index and is computed by Ninepoint Partners LP based on publicly available index information.

The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks. See the prospectus of the Fund for a description of these risks: capital gains risk; class risk; commodity risk; concentration risk; currency risk; cybersecurity risk; derivatives risk; exchange traded funds risk; foreign investment risk; inflation risk; liquidity risk; market risk; securities lending, repurchase and reverse repurchase transactions risk; series risk; short selling risk; small capitalization natural resource company risk; substantial shareholder risk; tax risk; uninsured losses risk.

Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to the Ninepoint Funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), other charges and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rate of return for series F units of the Fund for the period ended March 30, 2018 is based on the historical annual compounded total return including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and does not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.

The opinions, estimates and projections (“information”) contained within this report are solely those of Ninepoint Partners LP and are subject to change without notice. Ninepoint Partners makes every effort to ensure that the information has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However, Ninepoint Partners assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages, whether direct or indirect, which arise out of the use of this information. Ninepoint Partners is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. The information should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Please contact your own personal advisor on your particular circumstances. Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any investment funds managed by Ninepoint Partners. Any reference to a particular company is for illustrative purposes only and should not to be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell nor should it be considered as an indication of how the portfolio of any investment fund managed by Ninepoint Partners is or will be invested. Ninepoint Partners LP and/or its affiliates may collectively beneficially own/control 1% or more of any class of the equity securities of the issuers mentioned in this report. Ninepoint Partners LP and/or its affiliates may hold short position in any class of the equity securities of the issuers mentioned in this report. During the preceding 12 months, Ninepoint Partners LP and/or its affiliates may have received remuneration other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services from the issuers mentioned in this report.

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