You are now leaving Sprott.com and entering a linked website. Sprott has partnered with ALPS in offering the Sprott Gold Miners ETF. For fact sheets, marketing materials, prospectuses, performance, expense information and other details about the ETF, you will be directed to the ALPS/Sprott website at www.SprottETFs.comContinue to Sprott Exchange Traded Funds
The Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals Fund ended the month of November virtually flat, losing 0.08% for the month. The TSX Global Gold Total Return Index, lost 0.57% over the same time frame, while gold in Canadian dollar terms gained 0.39%. The month of November has traditionally been weak for gold and gold equities. For this reason, we entered the month with a defensive bias in our portfolio. While several events transpired over the course of the month which were of note, including progress on the U.S tax bill, bitcoin surpassing $10,000 and the continued buoyancy of the U.S. equity markets, it was heartening to see gold and gold equities remain steadfast in the face of the exuberant investor sentiment. Indeed gold has performed better than expected in an environment where investors continue to throw caution to the wind. At the end of November, it was up 5.49% and 10.48% in CAD and USD terms respectively.
As far as seasonality goes, December has proved to be one of the best times for buying gold and gold equities, as they have typically rallied quite strongly off the December lows. We expect this to be the case once again. Being a risk-off asset, gold and gold equities have traditionally performed well in an environment which was volatile for equities, rates and currencies. We would be remiss if we did not point out a few reasons which may cause volatility across asset classes to increase in the coming months.
The most obvious data point is valuations. Since 2009, which many consider to be the bottom for the broader markets, the price per share of the S&P 500 has gained 252% after reinvesting dividends having gone from 903 to 2647. However, the free cash flow generated by each share of the S&P 500 has only increased from $93.62 to $111.35 at the end of FY 2016. This number is expected to increase to $113.46 in 2017, representing a paltry increase in free cash flow of 21% from 2009 to 2017. Put differently, the free cash flow yield of each share of the S&P 500 has decreased from ~10% in 2009 to ~4% today. High yield credit spreads, similarly, are at exceptionally low levels, which once again point to an environment where picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller has come back in vogue in order to generate above market returns. Against this backdrop, it is easy for us to take solace in our portfolio, where we regularly see free cash flow yields north of 10% and P/E multiples around 10x, similar free cash flow yields and P/E multiples found at the bargain basement prices for the S&P 500 found in 2009, when nobody really cared for the S&P 500.
Some of the best valuations we see in our portfolio are with companies who have assets in Australia. It is therefore no surprise to see that our top contributors for the month of November were companies with operations in Australia, namely Kirkland Lake Gold, Dacian Resources and Northern Star Resources. Kirkland Lake Gold, our largest holding, was the top contributor for the month having gained 23% as ongoing exploration at the Fosterville operations continues to exceptionally high grades which are exceptionally economic. Dacian Gold has been continuing to keep its head down as it builds its Mount Morgan project. The stock was up 17% for the month as company rerates from a developer to a producer. Northern Star Resources gained 12% for the month after reporting strong operating numbers at the end of October.
The top detractors for the fund were Torex, Alio Gold and Leagold Resources. Torex’s shares were negatively impacted as a result of a labour dispute which has emerged at its El Limon operations. We continue to monitor the situation closely. Alio Gold reported a weak operating quarter, which negatively impacted the stock, however it appears that Alio has addressed the issues plaguing the quarter. Leagold Resources’ shares were lower as a result of a slightly weaker than expected quarter. However, Leagold is poised for a significant rerate as it executes on its plans for growth in the coming quarters.
1 All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F units; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at November 30, 2017; e) 2001 annual returns are from 11/15/01 to 12/31/01. The index is 100% S&P/TSX Global Gold Total Return Index and is computed by Ninepoint Partners LP based on publicly available index information.
The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks. See the prospectus of the Fund for a description of these risks: commodity risk; concentration risk; currency risk; cybersecurity risk; derivatives risk; exchange traded funds risk; foreign investment risk; inflation risk; liquidity risk; market risk; securities lending, repurchase and reverse repurchase transactions risk; series risk; short selling risk; small capitalization natural resource company risk; substantial unitholder risk; tax risk; uninsured losses risk.
Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to the Ninepoint Funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), other charges and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rate of return for series F units of the Fund for the period ended November 30, 2017 is based on the historical annual compounded total return including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and does not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.
The opinions, estimates and projections (“information”) contained within this report are solely those of Ninepoint Partners LP and are subject to change without notice. Ninepoint Partners makes every effort to ensure that the information has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However, Ninepoint Partners assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages, whether direct or indirect, which arise out of the use of this information. Ninepoint Partners is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. The information should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Please contact your own personal advisor on your particular circumstances. Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any investment funds managed by Ninepoint Partners. Any reference to a particular company is for illustrative purposes only and should not to be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell nor should it be considered as an indication of how the portfolio of any investment fund managed by Ninepoint Partners is or will be invested. Ninepoint Partners LP and/or its affiliates may collectively beneficially own/control 1% or more of any class of the equity securities of the issuers mentioned in this report. Ninepoint Partners LP and/or its affiliates may hold short position in any class of the equity securities of the issuers mentioned in this report. During the preceding 12 months, Ninepoint Partners LP and/or its affiliates may have received remuneration other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services from the issuers mentioned in this report.
Ninepoint Partners LP: Toll Free: 1.866.299.9906. DEALER SERVICES: RBC Investor & Treasury Services: Tel: 416.955.5885; Toll Free: 1.877.874.0899