Alt Thinking July 10, 2025
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Ninepoint Fixed Income Outlook

Fixed Income Outlook - 6.2025
Investment Team
  • Mark Wisniewski
    Partner, Senior Portfolio Manager
    Mark Wisniewski
    Partner, Senior Portfolio Manager
    Mark Wisniewski is Partner and Senior Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners and oversees the firm’s Fixed Income team and investment strategies. Prior to Ninepoint’s formation, Mark was with Sprott Asset Management (SAM) from 2015, rounding out more than 30 years of investment industry experience, specializing in fixed income. Prior to SAM, Mark was a Portfolio Manager specializing in alternative credit products at GluskinSheff & Associates, where he managed $1.3 billion across several...
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  • Etienne Bordeleau-Labrecque, MBA, CFA
    Vice President, Portfolio Manager
    Etienne Bordeleau-Labrecque, MBA, CFA
    Vice President, Portfolio Manager
    Etienne Bordeleau-Labrecque is Vice President, Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners. With over 10 years of expertise across equities, interest rates and credit, he now focuses primarily on the firm’s Fixed Income franchise. Prior to Ninepoint’s formation, Etienne was with Sprott Asset Management (SAM) from 2012, where he worked as an Analyst and Associate Portfolio Manager, covering North American equities in the financial, energy, utility and health care sectors. From 2008 to 2011, Étienn...
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  • Nick Warwick, MBA, CFA
    Associate Portfolio Manager
    Nick Warwick, MBA, CFA
    Associate Portfolio Manager
    Nick Warwick is an Associate Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners. Prior to Ninepoint, Nick was with TD Asset Management as a credit analyst covering the global oil & gas and non-North American financials sector. Past sector coverage includes pipelines, utilities, and industrials. Prior to his time at TD Asset Management, Nick worked for TD Securities on a foreign exchange sales desk in addition to a fixed income sales desk. Nick holds a Bachelor of Arts Degree from Queen's University...
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Key Takeaways
  • Yield Curve Steepening – Despite BOC rate cuts, longer-term Canadian yields have risen, steepening the curve.
  • Canadian Bonds Lag – The Canadian bond market has underperformed the U.S., as expectations for rate cuts were overly optimistic.
  • Credit Spreads Remain Tight – Credit spreads are back to where they started the year; managers remain cautious and defensive.
  • Favouring U.S. Duration – The team is shifting exposure from Canadian to U.S. rate duration, anticipating more cuts from the Fed.

June 2025

In this month’s update, Etienne Bordeleau, Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners previews the key themes from our upcoming monthly written commentary, were he discusses the mid-year review of fixed income markets, focusing on interest rate dynamics, yield curve analysis, credit market performance, and currency trends. He highlights the underperformance of the Canadian bond market compared to the U.S. and the implications of the trade war on economic growth and inflation. The discussion emphasizes a cautious approach to credit risk and the potential for further weakness in the U.S. dollar.

Key Topics Covered:


• The Canadian bond market has underperformed compared to the U.S. market.
• Interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada have not significantly impacted five-year rates.
• The yield curve is steepening as central banks normalize rates.
• Credit spreads are tight, and there's caution in taking on more credit risk.
• The trade war is impacting global growth and inflation expectations.
• The U.S. dollar is losing its strength as a reserve currency.
• Investors should consider hedging exposure to U.S. assets.
• The commentary will provide further insights into fund performance.
• The market is pricing in more rate cuts by the Fed than the BOC.
• The Canadian dollar has appreciated significantly this year.

Historical Commentary

View All
  • Commentary
    May 2025
    Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    After weeks of promotion, we were expecting the tariff announcements on April 2nd “Liberation Day” to be somewhat substantial. We, and the rest of the world, were shocked by the magnitude and breadth of the tariffs announced. Not only were the tariffs calculated in a very unorthodox fashion, pretty much every country on earth was included, even some uninhabited islands.
    Fixed Income
  • Commentary
    May 2025
    Ninepoint Fixed Income Outlook
    In this month's video preview for the May Fixed Income Commentary, Etienne Bordeleau, Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, previews the key themes from our upcoming monthly written commentary, focusing on the ongoing U.S.-led trade war, rising global policy instability, and what it all means for inflation, interest rates, and portfolio positioning.
    Fixed Income
    Credit
  • Commentary
    April 2025
    Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    After weeks of promotion, we were expecting the tariff announcements on April 2nd “Liberation Day” to be somewhat substantial. We, and the rest of the world, were shocked by the magnitude and breadth of the tariffs announced. Not only were the tariffs calculated in a very unorthodox fashion, pretty much every country on earth was included, even some uninhabited islands.
    Fixed Income
  • Commentary
    April 2025
    Ninepoint Fixed Income Outlook
    In this month's video preview for the April Fixed Income Commentary, Etienne Bordeleau, Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, unpacks the market’s dramatic reaction to U.S. "Liberation Day" tariffs, the global implications for Treasury yields and investor sentiment, and how Ninepoint is positioning amid a fractured credit market.
    Fixed Income
    Credit
  • Commentary
    March 2025
    Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    The Trump Trade War is now global, with tariffs on a multitude of products and countries, taking the U.S.’s average tariff rate to a level last seen in the 1930s (Figure 1 below). Back then, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act significantly raised duties on imported goods, and is broadly associated with a worsening of the Great Depression. The big difference then was that imports of goods were only about 2% of GDP, not 10%! As of the time of writing, we expect the overall U.S. tariff rate to increase to roughly 18-22%, but escalation could bring it even higher.
    Fixed Income
  • Commentary
    February 2025
    Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    While still feeling the effects of the largest rate hike cycle since the 1980s, the global economy finished 2024 in a vulnerable state. In response, by mid-year, central banks started cutting rates, hoping to revive demand and investment. Unfortunately, the world is now faced with another negative shock: Trump and his love of trade wars.
    Fixed Income
  • Commentary
    January 2025
    Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    While still feeling the effects of the largest rate hike cycle since the 1980s, the global economy finished 2024 in a vulnerable state. In response, by mid-year, central banks started cutting rates, hoping to revive demand and investment. Unfortunately, the world is now faced with another negative shock: Trump and his love of trade wars.
    Fixed Income
  • Commentary
    December 2024
    Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    2024 saw the end of the hiking cycle in Canada, the U.S. and Europe. Central banks were on hold for most of the first half and started cutting rates in June after several months on hold, encouraged by lower headline and core inflation.
    Fixed Income
  • Commentary
    November 2024
    Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    Now that the dust has settled following the U.S. presidential election, market participants are cautiously looking ahead to 2025. In Canada, we continue to see a deterioration in the labour market, with the unemployment rate now at 6.8% and rising (Figure 1 below). GDP growth is also disappointing, with only 1% growth in the third quarter. With this much slack in employment and the economy operating well below potential, we expect the Bank of Canada to continue cutting rates at a brisk pace.
    Fixed Income
  • Commentary
    October 2024
    Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    A lot has happened since our last commentary. Global growth (excluding the U.S.) continues to slow, prompting central banks around the world to loosen monetary policy (China, UK, Sweden, ECB, Canada and the Fed all cut rates this past month).
    Fixed Income
  • Commentary
    September 2024
    Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    All eyes were on the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting in September, and Chair Powell did not disappoint, kicking off the rate cut cycle with an oversized 50bps cut. For reference, the last time the Fed cut rates by 50bps was during the pandemic, and prior to that 2008. Suffice to say, they are a rare occurrence typically associated with extreme events.
    Fixed Income
  • Commentary
    August 2024
    Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    Following the intense volatility of early August, all eyes were on central bankers at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. In his speech, Chair Powell did not disappoint, stating that “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions” and that “The time has come for policy to adjust”.
    Fixed Income
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All Funds
  • NPP931
    (Series F)
    Exchange Traded Funds Liquid Alternatives Fixed Income
    $8.64 $0.00 (-0.05%)
    As at 7/11/2025
    Growth of $10,000 Invested as at 6/30/2025
    Performance as at 6/30/2025
    1 Year
    6.73%
    3 Year
    6.11%
    5 Year
    -
    10 Year
    -
    Incept.1
    2.59%
    1 Inception Date 5/12/2021
    Go To Fund

    All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F shares; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at 6/30/2025. Top ten holdings, sector allocation and geographic allocation as at 6/30/2025. Top ten holdings based on % of net asset value. Sector allocation based on % of net asset value. Geographic allocation based on % of net asset value and excludes cash. Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Cash and cash equivalents include non-portfolio assets and/or liabilities.

    The rate of return is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the investment fund or returns on investment in the investment fund.

    The monthly distribution amount may be adjusted by the Manager without notice throughout the year as market conditions change. Monthly distributions will be comprised of net income, net realized capital gains and/or return of capital. Any net income and/or net realized capital gains earned by the Fund in excess of the monthly distribution will be distributed to unitholders annually in December.

    The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks: Active management risk; Borrowing risk; Collateral risk; Credit risk; Currency risk; Cybersecurity risk; Derivatives risk; Exchange traded funds risk; Foreign investment risk; Inflation risk; Interest rate risk; Leverage risk; Liquidity risk; Market risk; Performance fee risk; Securities lending, repurchase and reverse repurchase transactions risk; Series risk; Short selling risk; Small company risk; Specific issuer risk; Tax risk; Absence of an active market for ETF Series risk; Halted trading of ETF Series risk; Trading price of ETF Series risk.

    Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to a number of funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), and other expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rates of return for series F units of the Funds for the period ended 6/30/2025 are based on the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to purchase securities of the Funds.

    The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not a resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.

    Ninepoint Partners LP: Toll Free: 1.866.299.9906. Dealer Services: CIBC Mellon GSSC Record Keeping Services: Toll Free: 1.877.358.0540

     

  • NPP507
    (Series F)
    Hedge Funds & Flow-Through LPs Fixed Income
    $8.81 $0.00 ()
    As at 6/30/2025
    Growth of $10,000 Invested as at 6/30/2025
    Performance as at 6/30/2025
    1 Year
    6.61%
    3 Year
    6.44%
    5 Year
    5.78%
    10 Year
    4.94%
    Incept.1
    4.94%
    1 Inception Date 7/1/2015
    Go To Fund

    An investment in the Fund requires the financial ability and willingness to accept the high risks and lack of liquidity inherent in an investment in the Fund. Investors in the Fund must be prepared to bear such risks for an extended period of time. No assurance can be given that the Fund’s investment objectives will be achieved or that investors will receive a return of their capital. Investors should have the financial ability and willingness to accept the risk characteristics of the Fund’s investments. The Fund is available to accredited investors only and Advisors should review the offering documents and the financial ability of their clients in order to ensure investment suitability.

    All returns and fund details are a) based on Class  F  units; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at 6/30/2025. Portfolio allocation includes allocation made with pending subscriptions. Top ten holdings as at 6/30/2025. Top ten holdings based on % of net asset value. Numbers may not add up due to rounding.

    The rate of return is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the investment fund or returns on investment in the investment fund.

    The Manager intends to make a monthly distribution on the Class B Units, the Class F Units and the Class I Units, to holders of such Units, out of the net income of the Fund. The amount of any distributions may fluctuate and there can be no assurance that any distributions will be made in any period or of any particular amount. Purchasers should not confuse these distributions with the Fund’s rate of return or yield. The distributions on the Class B Units, the Class F Units and the Class I Units are not guaranteed.

    The Ninepoint Credit Income Opportunities Fund is generally exposed to the following risks. See the offering memorandum of the Fund for a description of these risks: General Economic and Market Conditions; Inflation and Supply Chain Risk; Disease and Epidemics; Risks Related to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine; Assessment of the Market; Not a Public Mutual Fund; Class Risk; Charges to the Fund; Changes in Investment Objective, Strategies and Restrictions; Unitholders not Entitled to Participate in Management; Dependence of the Manager on Key Personnel; Reliance on the Manager; Resale Restrictions; Illiquidity; Possible Effect of Redemptions; Liability of Unitholders; Potential Indemnification Obligations; Lack of Independent Experts Representing Unitholders; No Involvement of Unaffiliated Selling Agent; Valuation of the Fund’s Investments; Concentration; Foreign Investment Risk; Illiquidity of Underlying Investments; Part X.2 Tax; Litigation; Fixed Income Securities; Equity Securities; Idle Cash; Currency Risk; Suspension of Trading; Investment Risk Level.

    The Ninepoint Credit Income Opportunities Fund is offered on a private placement basis pursuant to an offering memorandum and are only available to investors who meet certain eligibility or minimum purchase amount requirements under applicable securities legislation. The offering memorandum contains important information about the Fund, including its investment objective and strategies, purchase options, applicable management fees, performance fees, other charges and expenses, and should be read carefully before investing. Performance data represents past performance of the Fund and is not indicative of future performance. Data based on performance history of less than five years may not give prospective investors enough information to base investment decisions on. Please contact your own personal advisor on your particular circumstance. This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to purchase securities of the Fund. 

    The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not a resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.

    Ninepoint Partners LP: Toll Free: 1.866.299.9906. Dealer Services: CIBC Mellon GSSC Record Keeping Services: Toll Free: 1.877.358.0540

  • NPP118
    (Series F)
    Mutual Funds Exchange Traded Funds Fixed Income
    $10.29 -$0.02 (-0.18%)
    As at 7/11/2025
    Growth of $10,000 Invested as at 6/30/2025
    Performance as at 6/30/2025
    1 Year
    8.21%
    3 Year
    4.88%
    5 Year
    1.49%
    10 Year
    2.63%
    Incept.1
    3.55%
    1 Inception Date 8/6/2010
    Go To Fund

    All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F shares; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at 6/30/2025. Where applicable, all figures are annualized and based on monthly returns since inception. Risk-free rate and minimum acceptable rate calculated using rolling 90-day CDN T-bill rate. The rate of return or mathematical table shown is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the mutual fund or returns on investment in the mutual fund. Top ten holdings, sector allocation and geographic allocation as at 6/30/2025. Top ten holdings based on % of net asset value. Sector allocation based on % of net asset value. Geographic allocation based on % of net asset value and excludes cash. Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Cash and cash equivalents include non-portfolio assets and/or liabilities.

    The rate of return is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the investment fund or returns on investment in the investment fund.

    The monthly distribution amount may be adjusted by the Manager without notice throughout the year as market conditions change. Monthly distributions will be comprised of net income, net realized capital gains and/or return of capital. Any net income and/or net realized capital gains earned by the Fund in excess of the monthly distribution will be distributed to unitholders annually in December.

    The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks: Active management risk; Borrowing risk; Capital depletion risk (Series T, Series FT, Series PT, Series PFT, Series QT, and Series QFT units only); Credit risk; Currency risk; Cybersecurity risk; Derivatives risk; Exchange traded funds risk; Foreign investment risk; Inflation risk; Interest rate risk; Liquidity risk; Market risk; Regulatory risk; Securities lending, repurchase and reverse repurchase transactions risk; Series risk; Short selling risk; Specific issuer risk; Tax risk; Absence of an active market for ETF Series risk; Halted trading of ETF Series risk; Trading price of ETF Series risk.

    Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to a number of funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), and other expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rates of return for series F units of the Funds for the period ended 6/30/2025 are based on the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to purchase securities of the Funds.

    The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not a resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.

    © 2024 Morningstar Research Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; (3) and is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    Morningstar Ranking/Number of Funds in Category displays the Fund’s actual rank within its Morningstar Category based on average annual total return and number of funds in that Category. The ranking is subject to change every month.

    The Morningstar Risk Adjusted Return (MRARs), commonly referred to as the Star Rating, relate the risk-adjusted performance of a fund to its peers with the same CIFSC Fund category for the period ended as noted and are subject to change monthly. Morningstar calculates ratings for categories with at least 5 funds. To determine a fund’s rating, the fund and its peer are ranked by their MRARs. If a fund scores in the top 10% of its category, it receives five stars (High); if it falls in the next 22.5% , it receives four stars (Above Average); the next 35% earns a fund three stars(Neutral or Average); those in the next 22.5% received two stars (Below Average); and the lowest 10% received one star (Low). The overall rating is a weighted combination of the 3, 5 and 10 year ratings. For greater detail, see morningstar.ca.

    Ninepoint Partners LP: Toll Free: 1.866.299.9906. Dealer Services: CIBC Mellon GSSC Record Keeping Services: Toll Free: 1.877.358.0540