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Nvidia, Jevons Paradox, and Why the AI Age is Just Getting Started

Nvidia, Jevons Paradox, and Why the AI Age is Just Getting Started
PRICE SNAPSHOT
(7 Day Change as of June 6, 2025 8:30AM ET)
Bitcoin Price: $104,315  (1.14%)
DeFi Total-Value-Locked: $109.4B (5.12%)
Ethereum Price: $2,498 (3.70%)
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Bitcoin Dominance: 63.70% 0.95%
TKN.U Premium: 0.06%
STORY OF THE WEEK
Nvidia, Jevons Paradox, and Why the AI Age is Just Getting Started
By: Alex TapscottManaging Director of the Ninepoint Digital Asset Group, a division of Ninepoint Partners, and Portfolio Manager of the Ninepoint Crypto and AI Leaders ETF at Ninepoint Partners

Last week, chipmaker NVIDIA reported earnings that exceeded expectations, growing revenue at 69% year over year, putting to rest any fears that the AI boom propelling the company and broader market to new heights was slowing down.

To keep the rally going, the company will need to continue meeting Wall Street’s lofty expectations, but for now management and CEO Jensen Huang are being rewarded for their superb execution. At around $3.5 trillion in market capitalization, NVIDIA is once again the most valuable company in the world. Chipmakers like Broadcom and AMD are also pushing to all time highs, while large-cap tech companies, who for a brief time weighed on the U.S. market, are once again lifting it up.

Few predicted that Big Tech and AI names would stage such a dramatic comeback in such a short window. Trump’s tariff threats put enormous pressure on stocks and Big Tech was no exception, but there was a bigger and more existential risk brewing under the surface.

Earlier this year, Chinese startup DeepSeek released R1, a powerful open-source AI model reportedly trained for just $6 million—pennies compared to the billions spent by OpenAI, Google, and others. Under certain benchmarks, R1 performed competitively with GPT-4. The launch rattled nerves across Silicon Valley. NVIDIA stock dropped over 15% in a day.

The revelation of Chinese AI competitiveness raised two big concerns. First, some analysts began questioning whether American Big Tech companies and upstarts like OpenAI and Anthropic could sustain their lead in AI, or if they were just throwing billions of dollars at the problem. Second, they questioned if companies would need to spend as much on computing power and energy, throwing into question NVIDIA’s entire investment thesis as the preeminent chipmaker.

This was something we were curious about and tried to weigh the benefits and risks of DeepSeek and China's entrance into the AI race.

Figure 1: DeepSeek: Risk or Opportunity?

ninepointdagchartjune61.png

It is still too early to say whether China or America will win in the AI race. Perhaps we end up with two parallel, separate but roughly equal technology stacks and both American and Chinese companies benefit.

But I do think we can say now that fears about spending on chips is overblown.

The invention of DeepSeek is a classic case of the Jevons Paradox: as the price of a resource drops, demand for it surges, leading businesses to (somewhat counterintuitively) spend more not less on that particular resource. By dramatically reducing the cost of cutting-edge AI capabilities, DeepSeek will probably just accelerate global appetite for AI chips, infrastructure, and computing power. We've seen this pattern before. The declining cost of computing in the 1980s and 1990s didn’t cause businesses to spend less on mainframes. It caused them to spend more on PCs for every office worker. The dramatic drop in the cost of energy during the 19 th century didn’t cause people to spend less, rather it fueled the industrial age. When something becomes more abundant and affordable, demand doesn’t drop - it explodes.

Let’s revisit Nvidia’s earnings for signs of Jevons paradox playing out. To be sure, the data center segment was still responsible for most of the revenue - nearly 90% in Q1, driven by “hyper-scalers” such as Microsoft, Amazon, Meta & OpenAI investing in AI infrastructure. But NVIDIA is seeing broader adoption – and faster growth – in other segments, such as Automotive, which grew 103% YoY, increasing to $567 million. NVIDIA’s “DRIVE” platform chips help power autonomous vehicles and advanced driver assistance systems. CEO Jensen Huang expects this segment to potential reach $5 billion in revenue by the end of the year.

And then there’s robotics. NVIDIA announced Isaac GROOT N1, designed to “accelerate reasoning and skill development” in robots. This was accomplished by collaborate with Google Deepmind and Disney Research to develop an open-source engine called Newton, claiming to accelerate robotics machine learning workloads by over 70x. The company also talked about breakthroughs in medicine and other areas.

As AI models become more performant, and as chips become more powerful, AI will become more diffused in the economy, leading to more, not less demand.
THIS WEEK ON DEFI DECODED
Join Alex Tapscott as he decodes the world of Web3 from Consensus 2025 in Toronto. Listen in as he leads two powerhouse panels with top founders and leaders in the industry. The first, on May 15, explored the fast-moving convergence of AI and blockchain, while the second, on May 16, examined what Canada must do to reclaim its place as a global leader in Web3.
WHAT'S NEW IN CRYPTO
By: Jake Moodie , Analyst, Digital Asset Group at Ninepoint Partners

SEC Confirms Staking Activities on PoS Networks Do Not Violate Securities Laws as Regulatory Momentum Builds Across Agencies

The SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance has published a statement clarifying that crypto staking on proof-of-stake (PoS) networks doesn’t violate securities laws. In particular, the staff letter says protocol staking “does not involve the offer and sale of securities” and that participants “do not need to register transactions with the Commission under the Securities Act.” The SEC explained that staking rewards are simply payments for services provided to the network, not profits coming from the managerial and entrepreneurial efforts of others. That distinction is key under the Howey Test. This comes as part of a broader effort by the SEC to lead positive crypto regulatory reform. Since the launch of its Crypto Task Force, led by Commissioner Hester Peirce in January, the SEC has issued similar letters for stablecoins, proof-of-work (PoW) mining activities, and even memecoins, stating they too don’t fall under securities laws. And it’s not just the SEC moving in a more supportive direction. The U.S. Federal Reserve recently pulled back its earlier guidance that discouraged banks from dealing with crypto and stablecoins. The FDIC clarified that banks can engage with crypto without needing prior approval. And the OCC confirmed that banks can custody crypto, hold stablecoin reserves, and use blockchain networks for payments. Back in our 2025 outlook, we talked about how the new administration was driving a whole-of-government approach to crypto, a shift we said could create a more welcoming regulatory environment and attract traditional financial institutions and large enterprises. As we discussed last week, with leading U.S. banks now eyeing a joint stablecoin launch, it feels like that moment may finally be arriving.

FTX Estate Begins Second Round of Creditor Distributions Totaling $5B, Saga Nearing End with 90% of All Claims in Distribution Pipeline

The FTX bankruptcy estate has kicked off its second major round of distributions, sending over $5 billion in cash and stablecoins to eligible creditors. The process began last Friday, May 30, with funds expected to land in accounts within three business days via crypto platforms like BitGo and Kraken. This round covers four classes of creditors, with recoveries ranging from 54% to 120% of original claims. In October 2024, a U.S. court approved FTX’s bankruptcy plan, which stated that 98% of creditors, those with under $50,000 on the platform, would receive 119% of their account balances from the time of the exchange’s collapse in November 2022. These payouts were scheduled to be completed within 60 days of the plan’s effective date, January 3, 2025, using a portion of the $14.7 to $16.5 billion the estate had recovered. The first round, totaling nearly $7 billion, was sent out on February 18. Interestingly, that initial wave didn’t create the kind of crypto buying pressure many had predicted. But according to Coinbase Institutional, this second round might play out differently for three key reasons: some payments are being made in stablecoins, providing instant onchain liquidity; the market backdrop is more bullish than it was in February; and growing regulatory clarity could prompt institutional creditors to rotate back into the market. Only time will tell where this liquidity flows, but either way, it’s encouraging to see this FTX saga finally winding down, with 90% of all claims now in the distribution pipeline.

New Jersey’s Bergen County Moves 370,000 Property Records Onchain in Largest Land Registry Tokenization Project in U.S. History

Last week, New Jersey’s Bergen County announced the largest land registry tokenization project in U.S. history, bringing 370,000 property records, worth roughly $240 billion in real estate value, onchain using Avalanche. The system is being developed through a five-year partnership with Balcony, a blockchain land records company building on Avalanche, and will serve nearly one million residents across 70 municipalities. For decades, real estate transactions in the U.S. have depended on paper records and outdated systems, often taking up to 90 days to complete. By moving to blockchain rails, Bergen County can cut that down to just one day, while creating a digital, tamper-proof, and searchable record of property ownership. This shift is expected to reduce the risk of fraud, title disputes, and administrative errors. It follows a similar move nearly a year ago, when California’s Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) put 42 million car titles on Avalanche to streamline transfers and improve fraud detection. To learn more about how Avalanche is driving real-world blockchain adoption, we encourage you to check out our DeFi Decoded episode from November featuring John Wu, President of Ava Labs.
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
Chart 1:  The DEX-to-CEX Spot Volume Ratio Hits Record High of 25.89%. What’s Driving It?
In May, the ratio of decentralized (DEX) to centralized (CEX) spot trade volume hit an all-time high of 25.89%. That’s up from 11.79% a year ago and just 0.13% five years ago. Despite all the market cycles and volatility over the years, this chart tells a clear story: the trend is up and to the right. There are two big drivers behind the growing onchain share of total spot trading. The first, and most obvious, is that DEX volumes are booming, while CEX activity is down nearly 50% from its January levels. DEXs processed $410 billion in volume last month, the second-highest ever, just behind January’s $496 billion spike driven by the $TRUMP and $MELANIA memecoin mania. The second is the rise of easy-to-use onchain trading apps now available in the Apple App Store like MetaMask, Phantom, MoonPay, Moonshot, and many others. These apps strip away the complexity of navigating the onchain ecosystem and make it simple for non-crypto-native users to trade. You can see the impact in the Solana-to-Ethereum DEX volume ratio, which is now at 160%. Solana trading activity is a strong proxy for retail and consumer interest, and it’s still running hot. As we’ve said before, this trend is likely to continue its upward trajectory. Onchain volumes will keep growing as institutional flows ramp up, and possibly even faster if CEXs start to migrate parts of their operating businesses onchain should regulations allow it.
Chart 2:  Ethereum ETF Flows Mark Best Six Week Run Since December as Investor Sentiment Improves and Bullish Momentum Builds
In last week’s Digital Asset Digest, we talked about how net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs hit an all-time high of nearly $45 billion. This week, we’re shifting focus to Ethereum ETF flows, and for good reason. For starters, ETH ETFs saw $321 million in net inflows last week, while BTC ETFs had $8 million in outflows. If not the first time, it’s definitely one of the rare weeks where Ethereum inflows outpaced Bitcoin. Over the past six weeks, ETH ETFs have pulled in $1.2 billion, marking their strongest run since December 2024, when ETH was trading close to $4,000. So what’s behind the recent surge? The short answer is a much-needed improvement in sentiment. ETH has been outperforming BTC lately, up nearly 45% in the past month, compared to just 8% for Bitcoin. That’s helped push the ETH/BTC ratio from an over four-year low of 0.019 to 0.025. And if history is any guide, there could still be plenty of room to run, considering last cycle’s high of 0.085. Looking at last week specifically, SharpLink’s $425 financing led by Consensys and other big crypto VCs to pursue an ETH treasury strategy and become the “Strategy for ETH” clearly struck a chord with investors. Many likely saw it as a sign of what’s to come and moved early to position themselves accordingly.
COMMENTARY & INSIGHTS