ETH is Mooning! Next Stop $10,000?

ETH is Mooning! Next Stop $10,000?

By:  Alex Tapscott,  Managing Director of the Ninepoint Digital Asset Group, a division of Ninepoint Partners, and Portfolio Manager of the  Ninepoint Crypto and AI Leaders ETF  at Ninepoint Partners

Four weeks ago, we asked the question " Are you ready for a long Alt Szn?" arguing that Bitcoin had likely peaked relative to other crytoassets as Bitcoin 'dominance,' or Bitcoin's share of the overall crypto market cap, hit a cycle high of 66%.

We listed several factors including the emergence of ETH and SOL digital treasury companies (aka DATs) as a major new source of buying, accelerating inflows into Ethereum ETFs, and the growing fundamental case for Layer 1 networks like Ethereum, Solana, SUI, and SEI as the backbone for stablecoins, DeFi, and tokenized assets.

Since that note came out,  ETH and  SOL have outperformed BTC by 28% and 8% respectively. DAT buying has been a particularly potent driver. In fact, net new ETH buying from DATs and ETFs is outstripping new supply by a factor of 27:1! Check out our quantitative analysis section at the bottom of this note for some great charts and insights from Jake.

What's driving this? In addition to the factors we cited is the new and growing deluge of capital swamping the market, driven by ETFs and digital asset treasury companies. ETH holders have renewed confidence and clarity of purpose with a strong narrative that we believe will cause ETH to hit all time highs soon.

Musing about ETH's renewed strength, I posed this question on our podcast this week - what happens first: $200,000 per Bitcoin or $10,000 per ETH? Despite the fact it's a bigger climb for ETH (increasing 118%) vs BTC (which has to only go up 69%), I believe ETH will hit its round number first.

As readers of this newsletter know, we have long been bullish on ETH and other so-called Layer1 networks for their ability to enable new assets and applications onchain. In fall of last year we recorded a podcast " Dying on ETH Maxi Hill" basically saying we were still bullish. Turns out that was the right call. Bigger picture, Alt Szn is starting. ETH is next in-line, but there will be more fireworks before this bull market ends.

ETH is Mooning! Next Stop $10,000?

Join Alex Tapscott and Andrew Young as they decode the world of Web3. Listen in as they discuss the resurgence of Ethereum, Tom Lee’s efforts in educating Wall Street, how crypto’s reflexivity and flywheel effects are fueling today’s market rally, what could happen if DATs begin trading below mNAV, key lessons from the rapid rise of DATs and how long the trend might continue, Circle and Stripe launching their own EVM-compatible L1 networks and the implications for Ethereum, whether $10K ETH or $200K BTC comes first, and more.

Over the past few weeks, we’ve talked about the ongoing demand-supply imbalance in Bitcoin and Ethereum. This week, we’re showing it. Starting with Bitcoin: supply is up roughly 100,000 BTC in 2025, while Bitcoin ETFs and DATs have scooped up 700,000 BTC. Simply put, those two groups alone bought seven times more Bitcoin than was issued this year. This dynamic has shown up almost every month, but July was the biggest demand month yet on the demand front. If you’re wondering why Bitcoin has outperformed most cryptoassets while experiencing far lower volatility than in past cycles, these two demand engines are a big reason why. The capital coming from ETFs and DATs has built a real institutional foundation for Bitcoin and may finally break the old, retail-driven boom-bust cycle pattern. Now, Ethereum. Since June 1, ETH is up over 80% versus Bitcoin’s 15%. Why? Look at the ETH demand-and-supply chart: that’s when Ethereum entered a historic demand shock. It kicked off with SharpLink Gaming’s ETH treasury announcement at the end of May and its initial ETH purchase in early June. That was the first domino, followed by a wave of ETH treasury companies, including Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Andrew Keys’ Ether Machine, Bit Digital, BTCS, and ETHZilla. Given crypto’s inherent reflexivity, those new ETH DATs sparked a powerful flywheel that helped drive record inflows into ETH ETFs. To say these two groups have been aggressively accumulating ETH would be an understatement. Since the start of June, ETH ETFs and DATs have acquired 4,850,000 ETH, while supply increased by just 180,000 ETH. That’s a 27-to-1 ratio in favor of demand. That’s really all that needs to be said, truly remarkable.

Chart 2:  A Timeline of the Most Supportive U.S. Crypto Environment Ever

At the start of the year, we said that regulatory headwinds would hit an inflection point and turn into powerful tailwinds for the crypto industry in our 2025 market outlook. More specifically, we thought three key trends would emerge: a whole-of-government approach to crypto, that regulatory clarity was poised to draw banks into the crypto arena, and that the new pro-crypto SEC would attract new retail and institutional investors into the asset class. Given that we’re already through the halfway point of the year, we decided to put together a timeline of important pro-crypto actions in America taken so far this year to assess our prediction. What we found is nothing short of unprecedented. In just eight months, we’ve seen coordinated action across the White House, Treasury, SEC, OCC, DOJ, and banking regulators, all pushing in the same direction. Policies that once hindered crypto adoption are being reversed or replaced, and entirely new frameworks are opening the door for institutional-scale and mainstream participation. This isn’t just a friendlier regulatory environment, it’s the most supportive backdrop the industry has ever seen. Yes, we’ve been vocal that Trump’s memecoin antics and personal crypto ventures have hurt credibility and aren’t helpful for the industry’s image. But the bigger picture, with the sweeping policy shifts and green lights shown in this timeline, is the real story and where the focus should be. That’s where the meaningful, long-term impact lies. This backdrop has already brought institutions off the sidelines, rushing to launch stablecoins, tokenized assets, and even their own blockchains. This isn’t just a friendlier regulatory environment, it’s the most supportive backdrop the industry has ever seen.