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Ninepoint Fixed Income Outlook

Fixed Income Outlook - 4.2025
Key Takeaways
  • Liberation Day tariffs triggered a sharp equity selloff and bond rally.
  • Global investors are reducing exposure to U.S. Treasuries and the dollar.
  • Fed cuts and heavy issuance may steepen the yield curve significantly.
  • Long-term bonds are riskier due to high deficits and weak demand.
  • Canadian credit markets froze in April; defensive sectors preferred.

April, 2025

In this month's video preview for the April Fixed Income Commentary, Etienne Bordeleau, Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, unpacks the market’s dramatic reaction to U.S. "Liberation Day" tariffs, the global implications for Treasury yields and investor sentiment, and how Ninepoint is positioning amid a fractured credit market.

With U.S. tariffs temporarily deferred but tensions with China escalating, global investors are beginning to question the reliability of U.S. Treasuries. At the same time, soaring fiscal deficits and rising issuance needs are adding pressure to the long end of the curve.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Liberation Day Market Shock – U.S. tariffs triggered a flight to safety, then a sharp reversal as investors recalibrated growth expectations.
  • China Trade Breakdown – Effective embargo-level tariffs (125–145%) have slashed trade volumes; shelves could start going bare.
  • Flight from U.S. Treasuries – Foreign investors are stepping back from U.S. dollar assets amid geopolitical and fiscal instability.
  • Steepening Yield Curve Risk – Massive bond issuance and policy uncertainty may drive curve steepening, even during Fed rate cuts.
  • Canadian Credit Issuance Freeze – April saw the lowest new issuance in years; sector-level divergence is now critical to positioning.
  • Sector Rotation in Credit – Autos, energy, and REITs under pressure; Ninepoint remains focused on defensive sectors with better carry.
  • Strategic Takeaway – We remain underweight long-term bonds and continue to emphasize high-quality, lower-volatility credit sectors.

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