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Ninepoint Fixed Income Outlook

Fixed Income Outlook - 6.2025
Key Takeaways
  • Yield Curve Steepening – Despite BOC rate cuts, longer-term Canadian yields have risen, steepening the curve.
  • Canadian Bonds Lag – The Canadian bond market has underperformed the U.S., as expectations for rate cuts were overly optimistic.
  • Credit Spreads Remain Tight – Credit spreads are back to where they started the year; managers remain cautious and defensive.
  • Favouring U.S. Duration – The team is shifting exposure from Canadian to U.S. rate duration, anticipating more cuts from the Fed.

June 2025

In this month’s update, Etienne Bordeleau, Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners previews the key themes from our upcoming monthly written commentary, were he discusses the mid-year review of fixed income markets, focusing on interest rate dynamics, yield curve analysis, credit market performance, and currency trends. He highlights the underperformance of the Canadian bond market compared to the U.S. and the implications of the trade war on economic growth and inflation. The discussion emphasizes a cautious approach to credit risk and the potential for further weakness in the U.S. dollar.

Key Topics Covered:


• The Canadian bond market has underperformed compared to the U.S. market.
• Interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada have not significantly impacted five-year rates.
• The yield curve is steepening as central banks normalize rates.
• Credit spreads are tight, and there's caution in taking on more credit risk.
• The trade war is impacting global growth and inflation expectations.
• The U.S. dollar is losing its strength as a reserve currency.
• Investors should consider hedging exposure to U.S. assets.
• The commentary will provide further insights into fund performance.
• The market is pricing in more rate cuts by the Fed than the BOC.
• The Canadian dollar has appreciated significantly this year.

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