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Ninepoint Fixed Income Outlook

Fixed Income Outlook - 5.2025
Key Takeaways
  • Tariffs Remain Elevated – Despite some rollback, U.S. trade policy continues to pressure inflation and weaken growth outlooks.
  • Policy Instability Driving Uncertainty – Unpredictable U.S. decision-making is eroding investor confidence across global markets.
  • Central Banks Pause on Cuts – Inflation from tariffs and weakening labour data are keeping rate cuts off the table—for now.
  • Rising Fiscal Red Flags – U.S. deficits remain unsustainably high, with new spending set to deepen the imbalance.

May 2025

In this month's video preview for our written Fixed Income Commentary, Etienne Bordeleau, Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, previews the key themes from our upcoming May commentary, focusing on the ongoing U.S.-led trade war, rising global policy instability, and what it all means for inflation, interest rates, and portfolio positioning.

Despite a partial rollback of Liberation Day tariffs, average U.S. tariff levels remain seven times higher than in 2024 — fueling uncertainty, inflation pressures, and a slowing labour market in both Canada and the U.S. Etienne highlights why central banks are holding back on rate cuts, the growing fiscal risks from ballooning deficits, and how foreign bond investors are rethinking their U.S. exposure.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Trade War Continues – Despite policy backtracking, tariffs remain historically elevated, with growth and inflation risks rising.
  • Policy Instability the New Normal – Unpredictable U.S. policymaking is undermining investor confidence.
  • Central Banks on Hold – Labour weakness offsets inflation from tariffs, delaying potential rate cuts in both Canada and the U.S.
  • Fiscal Risks Mounting – U.S. deficits near 6% of GDP, with new spending poised to add $2.5 trillion more over 10 years.
  • Foreign Investors Wary – Rising concerns over rule of law and central bank independence are shaking global faith in U.S. Treasuries.
  • Portfolio Positioning – Avoiding long-duration bonds and staying defensive with high-quality, short-duration credit.
  • Capital Preservation Focus – In this volatile environment, protecting capital remains our top priority.

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