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Ninepoint Fixed Income Outlook

Fixed Income Outlook - 5.2025
Key Takeaways
  • Tariffs Remain Elevated – Despite some rollback, U.S. trade policy continues to pressure inflation and weaken growth outlooks.
  • Policy Instability Driving Uncertainty – Unpredictable U.S. decision-making is eroding investor confidence across global markets.
  • Central Banks Pause on Cuts – Inflation from tariffs and weakening labour data are keeping rate cuts off the table—for now.
  • Rising Fiscal Red Flags – U.S. deficits remain unsustainably high, with new spending set to deepen the imbalance.

May 2025

In this month's video preview for our written Fixed Income Commentary, Etienne Bordeleau, Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, previews the key themes from our upcoming May commentary, focusing on the ongoing U.S.-led trade war, rising global policy instability, and what it all means for inflation, interest rates, and portfolio positioning.

Despite a partial rollback of Liberation Day tariffs, average U.S. tariff levels remain seven times higher than in 2024 — fueling uncertainty, inflation pressures, and a slowing labour market in both Canada and the U.S. Etienne highlights why central banks are holding back on rate cuts, the growing fiscal risks from ballooning deficits, and how foreign bond investors are rethinking their U.S. exposure.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Trade War Continues – Despite policy backtracking, tariffs remain historically elevated, with growth and inflation risks rising.
  • Policy Instability the New Normal – Unpredictable U.S. policymaking is undermining investor confidence.
  • Central Banks on Hold – Labour weakness offsets inflation from tariffs, delaying potential rate cuts in both Canada and the U.S.
  • Fiscal Risks Mounting – U.S. deficits near 6% of GDP, with new spending poised to add $2.5 trillion more over 10 years.
  • Foreign Investors Wary – Rising concerns over rule of law and central bank independence are shaking global faith in U.S. Treasuries.
  • Portfolio Positioning – Avoiding long-duration bonds and staying defensive with high-quality, short-duration credit.
  • Capital Preservation Focus – In this volatile environment, protecting capital remains our top priority.

Historical Commentary

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  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    After weeks of promotion, we were expecting the tariff announcements on April 2nd “Liberation Day” to be somewhat substantial. We, and the rest of the world, were shocked by the magnitude and breadth of the tariffs announced. Not only were the tariffs calculated in a very unorthodox fashion, pretty much every country on earth was included, even some uninhabited islands.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Outlook
    In this month's video preview for the April Fixed Income Commentary, Etienne Bordeleau, Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, unpacks the market’s dramatic reaction to U.S. "Liberation Day" tariffs, the global implications for Treasury yields and investor sentiment, and how Ninepoint is positioning amid a fractured credit market.
    Fixed Income
    Credit
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    The Trump Trade War is now global, with tariffs on a multitude of products and countries, taking the U.S.’s average tariff rate to a level last seen in the 1930s (Figure 1 below). Back then, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act significantly raised duties on imported goods, and is broadly associated with a worsening of the Great Depression. The big difference then was that imports of goods were only about 2% of GDP, not 10%! As of the time of writing, we expect the overall U.S. tariff rate to increase to roughly 18-22%, but escalation could bring it even higher.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    While still feeling the effects of the largest rate hike cycle since the 1980s, the global economy finished 2024 in a vulnerable state. In response, by mid-year, central banks started cutting rates, hoping to revive demand and investment. Unfortunately, the world is now faced with another negative shock: Trump and his love of trade wars.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    While still feeling the effects of the largest rate hike cycle since the 1980s, the global economy finished 2024 in a vulnerable state. In response, by mid-year, central banks started cutting rates, hoping to revive demand and investment. Unfortunately, the world is now faced with another negative shock: Trump and his love of trade wars.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    2024 saw the end of the hiking cycle in Canada, the U.S. and Europe. Central banks were on hold for most of the first half and started cutting rates in June after several months on hold, encouraged by lower headline and core inflation.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    Now that the dust has settled following the U.S. presidential election, market participants are cautiously looking ahead to 2025. In Canada, we continue to see a deterioration in the labour market, with the unemployment rate now at 6.8% and rising (Figure 1 below). GDP growth is also disappointing, with only 1% growth in the third quarter. With this much slack in employment and the economy operating well below potential, we expect the Bank of Canada to continue cutting rates at a brisk pace.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    A lot has happened since our last commentary. Global growth (excluding the U.S.) continues to slow, prompting central banks around the world to loosen monetary policy (China, UK, Sweden, ECB, Canada and the Fed all cut rates this past month).
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    All eyes were on the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting in September, and Chair Powell did not disappoint, kicking off the rate cut cycle with an oversized 50bps cut. For reference, the last time the Fed cut rates by 50bps was during the pandemic, and prior to that 2008. Suffice to say, they are a rare occurrence typically associated with extreme events.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    Following the intense volatility of early August, all eyes were on central bankers at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. In his speech, Chair Powell did not disappoint, stating that “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions” and that “The time has come for policy to adjust”.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    As discussed last month, economic momentum has started to wane, and this has caught the attention of central banks
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    Over the past month, economic momentum in the U.S. has taken a turn for the worse, with housing, retail sales, PMIs and even employment measures all coming in very weak. To put it all in perspective, we have shown in Figure 1 below, the U.S. economic surprise index, as calculated by Bloomberg. Rarely has it been this weak, and the weakness is quite broad across most sectors. With fiscal stimulus waning, U.S. households running out of pandemic-era savings and monetary policy biting, it was to be expected that economic activity would eventually wane.
    Fixed Income