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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 5.1.2025
Key Takeaways
  • Carney win = no change for Canadian energy policy.
  • OPEC+ tensions could trigger supply surge.
  • WTI < $60 puts US shale in decline.
  • Gas outlook strong: low supply, high demand.

May 1, 2025

In this week’s Ninepoint Energy Strategies update, Eric Nuttall breaks down the implications of Canada’s federal election and looks ahead to a pivotal OPEC+ meeting that could reshape oil market dynamics.

Despite a new Carney-led Liberal minority, Nuttall sees little change in energy policy direction, noting continued regulatory uncertainty and a $2 billion carbon tax burden on Canadian producers. Attention now shifts to Monday’s OPEC+ meeting, where tensions over production compliance could trigger accelerated barrel returns.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Canadian Election Outcome – A Liberal-NDP alliance keeps energy policy gridlocked with Bill C-69, emissions caps, and carbon taxes likely to remain.
  • Regulatory Overhang – Political risk discount persists as the sector awaits signals from new cabinet appointments.
  • OPEC+ Compliance Crackdown – Saudi-led frustration with overproducing members could reignite supply war, with Monday’s meeting pivotal.
  • U.S. Shale in the “Death Zone” – Sub-$60 WTI threatens output; growth stalls as shale hits economic limits.
  • Natural Gas Bull Case – LNG exports surge, U.S. inventories stay low, and AI/data center power demand adds long-term structural support.
  • Market Still Underpricing Supply Risk – Demand concerns dominate headlines, but supply destruction is the true rebalancing force.

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