Video Commentary
Print Print

Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 5.8.2025
Key Takeaways
  • Shale Peak – Diamondback says U.S. oil production has likely peaked.
  • $60 = Trouble – WTI below $60 can't sustain shale output.
  • Inventory Shrinking – Quality wells are running out.
  • Canada Rising – Montney and Duvernay attract U.S. interest.

May 8, 2025

In this week’s edition, Eric delivers a decisive message on what could be the most consequential shift in oil markets in over a decade: the twilight of US shale.

Following Diamondback Energy’s striking Q1 commentary, Eric makes the case that US onshore oil production has likely peaked. With capital discipline, inventory exhaustion, and 42% annual decline rates overwhelming technology gains, the “drill baby drill” era appears officially over. The implications? Supply challenges, resurgent pricing power for OPEC+, and growing strategic value in Canadian long-life reserves.

Key Topics Covered:

  • US Shale Has Peaked – Diamondback, the top-tier Permian producer, declares US oil output is now in decline due to geology, economics, and shareholder pressure.
  • $60 WTI = Shale “Death Zone” – At sub-$60 prices, producers can’t drill enough to offset massive decline rates, accelerating the supply crunch.
  • Canada’s Strategic Edge – As US basins mature, Canada emerges as the last investable resource basin with high-quality, long-life inventory.
  • LNG Canada Catalyst – First exports expected in June could significantly narrow the nat gas discount, adding bullish momentum to Canadian gas.

Despite fears over demand softness, real-time data shows continued strength. With capital being slashed and production rolling over, the setup for a meaningful oil and gas recovery may already be in motion.

Historical Commentary

View All
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall breaks down the implications of Canada’s federal election and looks ahead to a pivotal OPEC+ meeting that could reshape oil market dynamics.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, provides insights into recent volatility in the oil markets ahead of the May 5th OPEC+ meeting. With conflicting signals from Kazakhstan, rising tensions within OPEC+, and ongoing uncertainty about global demand, Eric breaks down what these developments could mean for oil prices, US shale production, and opportunities in natural gas.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this high-volatility edition of the Ninepoint Energy Update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies dissects the whipsaw action in oil markets following retaliatory tariffs and widespread global uncertainty. With oil dipping below $60 WTI and market panic intensifying, Eric breaks down what this means for demand forecasts, US shale, Canadian oil producers, and natural gas fundamentals.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies dives into the fallout from “Liberation Day”, as the U.S. imposes surprisingly aggressive retaliatory tariffs — sparking uncertainty across global markets and potentially shaving 1–2% off U.S. GDP. In this high-stakes environment, Eric explores what it all means for oil demand, OPEC+ supply strategy, U.S. shale output, and Canadian energy equities.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, breaks down the rebound in oil and natural gas prices, the continued unwind of false narratives like “drill baby drill,” and why the launch of LNG Canada could be a game-changer for Canadian natural gas producers.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, recaps CERAWeek in Houston, where top oil executives, analysts, and industry leaders debunked long-held false narratives and reinforced the long-term bullish case for oil and energy stocks.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    This week, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies breaks down the immediate impact on gasoline prices, investor sentiment, and energy stocks while explaining why the long-term outlook remains bullish for Canadian oil & gas companies.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    Live from Vienna, outside OPEC headquarters! In this week’s episode, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, shares key takeaways from two weeks of global energy meetings, discussing the impact of U.S. tariffs, the outlook for oil demand, and the twilight of U.S. shale production. With volatility at extreme levels, Eric breaks down what’s noise and what really matters for Canadian energy investors.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, shares exclusive insights from the IEA-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks, where global energy leaders discussed the realistic future of oil and natural gas. The event provided valuable perspectives from industry experts and energy ministers on the long-term trajectory of the sector, debunking misconceptions and offering a bullish outlook for oil and LNG demand.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, shares exclusive insights from the IEA-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks, where global energy leaders discussed the realistic future of oil and natural gas. The event provided valuable perspectives from industry experts and energy ministers on the long-term trajectory of the sector, debunking misconceptions and offering a bullish outlook for oil and LNG demand.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's long format video, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Energy Strategies, breaks down the key themes shaping the energy market, including the impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs, the false narrative around surging U.S. shale production, and why Canadian energy stocks remain deeply undervalued.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    This week, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, dives into the volatile energy markets, key developments in Canadian oil and pipeline strategy, and how shifting geopolitical and economic factors are shaping global energy prices.
    Sector Investments