Video Commentary
Print Print

Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 5.8.2025
Key Takeaways
  • Shale Peak – Diamondback says U.S. oil production has likely peaked.
  • $60 = Trouble – WTI below $60 can't sustain shale output.
  • Inventory Shrinking – Quality wells are running out.
  • Canada Rising – Montney and Duvernay attract U.S. interest.

May 8, 2025

In this week’s edition, Eric delivers a decisive message on what could be the most consequential shift in oil markets in over a decade: the twilight of US shale.

Following Diamondback Energy’s striking Q1 commentary, Eric makes the case that US onshore oil production has likely peaked. With capital discipline, inventory exhaustion, and 42% annual decline rates overwhelming technology gains, the “drill baby drill” era appears officially over. The implications? Supply challenges, resurgent pricing power for OPEC+, and growing strategic value in Canadian long-life reserves.

Key Topics Covered:

  • US Shale Has Peaked – Diamondback, the top-tier Permian producer, declares US oil output is now in decline due to geology, economics, and shareholder pressure.
  • $60 WTI = Shale “Death Zone” – At sub-$60 prices, producers can’t drill enough to offset massive decline rates, accelerating the supply crunch.
  • Canada’s Strategic Edge – As US basins mature, Canada emerges as the last investable resource basin with high-quality, long-life inventory.
  • LNG Canada Catalyst – First exports expected in June could significantly narrow the nat gas discount, adding bullish momentum to Canadian gas.

Despite fears over demand softness, real-time data shows continued strength. With capital being slashed and production rolling over, the setup for a meaningful oil and gas recovery may already be in motion.

Historical Commentary

View All
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of the Ninepoint Energy Strategy, breaks down a pivotal week for global energy markets — including the IEA’s surprising shift on long-term oil demand, Canada’s pipeline outlook, and the growing structural setup for the next major oil bull cycle.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, breaks down a pivotal week for the energy sector — highlighted by a surge in natural gas prices, major M&A developments, and early signs of a policy shift from Ottawa.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, breaks down a powerful rally in natural gas—up over 13% this week—as early weather forecasts signal one of the coldest winters in the past decade.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, shares insights from the Energy Aspects conference in London, where oil CEOs, traders, policymakers, and investors gathered to debate the future of global energy markets.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's update, Eric shares insights from the Peters & Gale Energy Conference and discusses why sentiment in the oil sector may be on the verge of a major shift.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's update, Eric returns from a summer break to dissect the growing debate between oil market bulls and bears. With OPEC+ compliance questions, surging non-OPEC supply, and Chinese stockpiling all driving volatility, Eric explains why short-term caution is warranted but why the medium-term outlook remains firmly bullish.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, provides a mid-year update on the energy markets, reviewing the key drivers of volatility in oil and gas during the first half of 2025 and laying out his outlook for the remainder of the year.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric unpacks a pivotal moment for the oil and gas markets. With global inventories rising faster than expected and OPEC+ accelerating the return of withheld barrels, Eric explains why a near-term oil price correction appears likely, and why US shale could play the critical balancing role in 2026.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric returns from the RBC Energy Conference with significant updates on U.S. shale, OPEC+ policy shifts, and structural demand growth for natural gas.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric outlines why he expects oil prices to languish in the $50–$60 range over the next 9 to 12 months, as global oil inventories climb, OPEC+ discipline breaks down, and U.S. shale enters structural decline.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall breaks down the implications of Canada’s federal election and looks ahead to a pivotal OPEC+ meeting that could reshape oil market dynamics.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, provides insights into recent volatility in the oil markets ahead of the May 5th OPEC+ meeting. With conflicting signals from Kazakhstan, rising tensions within OPEC+, and ongoing uncertainty about global demand, Eric breaks down what these developments could mean for oil prices, US shale production, and opportunities in natural gas.
    Sector Investments