Video Commentary
Print Print

Ninepoint Fixed Income Outlook

Fixed Income Outlook - 7.2025
Key Takeaways
  • Core private domestic demand slowed to 1.2% in Q2, with consumer spending flat in the weakest first half in a decade.
  • Three months of stalled job gains push unemployment to 4.25%, reinforcing expectations for Fed rate cuts starting in September.
  • Bond markets now price in at least two cuts by year-end; positioning remains tilted to benefit from lower U.S. rates.
  • Despite falling shelter inflation, the BOC holds steady, likely awaiting U.S.-Canada trade clarity before cutting further.

July 2025

In this month's update, Etienne Bordeleau-Lebrecque, Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, previews key insights from our July Fixed Income Strategy update — a pivotal month for the U.S. economy. With Q2 GDP data, central bank meetings, and a dismal U.S. employment report, the path forward for interest rates and fixed income markets is coming into sharper focus.

Key Topics Covered:

  • U.S. Growth Stalls – Final private domestic demand slowed sharply from 1.9% in Q1 to 1.2% in Q2, with consumer spending flat in the weakest first half in over a decade.
  • Labour Market Weakness – Three months of stalled job growth push U.S. unemployment to 4.25%, fuelling expectations for Fed rate cuts as soon as September.
  • Positioning for Fed Easing – Anticipating U.S. economic softness, we’ve maintained exposure to benefit from further rate cuts.
  • Bank of Canada on Hold – Despite falling shelter inflation, the BOC cites it as a reason for caution, awaiting clarity on U.S.-Canada trade developments.
  • Outlook for Canada – Broader economic and job market weakness could force the BOC to cut rates later this year or early next year.

 

Historical Commentary

View All
  • Focused on: Fixed Income
    In their Mid-Year 2025 Fixed Income Review, Mark Wisniewski and Etienne Bordeleau, provide a comprehensive update on the macroeconomic landscape and key positioning decisions across our fixed income strategies. Amidst slower U.S. growth, falling inflation, and diverging central bank actions, the team breaks down how we’re managing risk and uncovering opportunity in a market still adjusting to the aftermath of 2022–2023 rate hikes.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Outlook
    In this month’s update, Etienne Bordeleau, Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners previews the key themes from our upcoming monthly written commentary, were he discusses the mid-year review of fixed income markets, focusing on interest rate dynamics, yield curve analysis, credit market performance, and currency trends. He highlights the underperformance of the Canadian bond market compared to the U.S. and the implications of the trade war on economic growth and inflation. The discussion emphasizes a cautious approach to credit risk and the potential for further weakness in the U.S. dollar.
    Fixed Income
    Credit
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    As we have now reached the midpoint of the year, we thought we could take stock of what has happened, before reflecting on what could happen in the second half. The table below shows the year-to-date change in some of the key variables impacting North American fixed income investors.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    After weeks of promotion, we were expecting the tariff announcements on April 2nd “Liberation Day” to be somewhat substantial. We, and the rest of the world, were shocked by the magnitude and breadth of the tariffs announced. Not only were the tariffs calculated in a very unorthodox fashion, pretty much every country on earth was included, even some uninhabited islands.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Outlook
    In this month's video preview for the May Fixed Income Commentary, Etienne Bordeleau, Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, previews the key themes from our upcoming monthly written commentary, focusing on the ongoing U.S.-led trade war, rising global policy instability, and what it all means for inflation, interest rates, and portfolio positioning.
    Fixed Income
    Credit
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    After weeks of promotion, we were expecting the tariff announcements on April 2nd “Liberation Day” to be somewhat substantial. We, and the rest of the world, were shocked by the magnitude and breadth of the tariffs announced. Not only were the tariffs calculated in a very unorthodox fashion, pretty much every country on earth was included, even some uninhabited islands.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Outlook
    In this month's video preview for the April Fixed Income Commentary, Etienne Bordeleau, Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, unpacks the market’s dramatic reaction to U.S. "Liberation Day" tariffs, the global implications for Treasury yields and investor sentiment, and how Ninepoint is positioning amid a fractured credit market.
    Fixed Income
    Credit
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    The Trump Trade War is now global, with tariffs on a multitude of products and countries, taking the U.S.’s average tariff rate to a level last seen in the 1930s (Figure 1 below). Back then, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act significantly raised duties on imported goods, and is broadly associated with a worsening of the Great Depression. The big difference then was that imports of goods were only about 2% of GDP, not 10%! As of the time of writing, we expect the overall U.S. tariff rate to increase to roughly 18-22%, but escalation could bring it even higher.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    While still feeling the effects of the largest rate hike cycle since the 1980s, the global economy finished 2024 in a vulnerable state. In response, by mid-year, central banks started cutting rates, hoping to revive demand and investment. Unfortunately, the world is now faced with another negative shock: Trump and his love of trade wars.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    While still feeling the effects of the largest rate hike cycle since the 1980s, the global economy finished 2024 in a vulnerable state. In response, by mid-year, central banks started cutting rates, hoping to revive demand and investment. Unfortunately, the world is now faced with another negative shock: Trump and his love of trade wars.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    2024 saw the end of the hiking cycle in Canada, the U.S. and Europe. Central banks were on hold for most of the first half and started cutting rates in June after several months on hold, encouraged by lower headline and core inflation.
    Fixed Income
  • Ninepoint Fixed Income Strategy
    Now that the dust has settled following the U.S. presidential election, market participants are cautiously looking ahead to 2025. In Canada, we continue to see a deterioration in the labour market, with the unemployment rate now at 6.8% and rising (Figure 1 below). GDP growth is also disappointing, with only 1% growth in the third quarter. With this much slack in employment and the economy operating well below potential, we expect the Bank of Canada to continue cutting rates at a brisk pace.
    Fixed Income