September 30, 2025
Commentary
Year-to-date to September 30, the Ninepoint Silver Bullion Fund generated a total net return of 54.41%. For the month, the Fund generated a total return of 18.76%.
Year-to-date to September 30, the Ninepoint Silver Equities Fund generated a total net return of 134.27%. For the month, the Fund generated a total return of 26.04%.
NINEPOINT SILVER BULLION FUND - COMPOUNDED RETURNS¹ AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2025 (SERIES F NPP326) | INCEPTION DATE: MAY 9, 2011
MTD |
YTD |
3M |
6M |
1YR |
3YR |
5YR |
10YR |
Inception |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fund |
18.76% |
54.41% |
31.36% |
31.30% |
52.18% |
33.32% |
14.41% |
10.87% |
2.10% |
NINEPOINT SILVER EQUITIES FUND - COMPOUNDED RETURNS¹ AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2025 (SERIES F NPP866) | INCEPTION DATE: FEBRUARY 28, 2012
MTD |
YTD |
3M |
6M |
1YR |
3YR |
5YR |
10YR |
Inception |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fund |
26.04% |
134.27% |
60.32% |
90.20% |
116.08% |
40.46% |
10.02% |
17.62% |
4.58% |
Q3 2025 Update
With the global economies navigating an era of unprecedented geopolitical and trade-related volatility, questions are being raised about the global reliance on the US Dollar. This uncertainty has revitalized the enduring appeal of gold while also bringing silver into the spotlight. During the third quarter of 2025, gold and silver both entered uncharted territories as these metals rallied past $4000/oz in case of gold and beyond $50/oz for silver. At the time of writing, it is not surprising that we are experiencing a sharp corrective pullback. While the recent pullback was overdue and indeed, healthy in a bull market, we posit that the underlying forces driving this phenomenon are far more profound than mere market speculation. Our view remains that the story which is unfolding in the precious metal complex is fundamentally intertwined with the US economy and, most critically, the perceived loss of credibility in the US dollar—a narrative that is increasingly compelling for central banks, institutional investors, and individual savers alike.
A Retreat from Fiat
We are currently in what appears to be a global recalibration where the unquestioned dominance of the US Dollar is being scrutinized and questioned. The recent surge in precious metals has been a symptom of this recalibration playing out. For decades, the dollar has served as the world’s primary reserve currency. The US has been a pillar of stability underpinned by the perceived strength of the American economy, its military might and its financial system. However, years of expansionary monetary policies, ballooning government debt, and a politically weaponized foreign policy have been eroding away at this dominant foundation.
When governments rely on endless borrowing and money creation to fund deficits, they are effectively debasing their currency. This fiscal recklessness reveals a critical truth. As J.P. Morgan famously declared in 1912, "Gold is money. Everything else is credit.". The existing US dollar hegemony, which has been built on the shifting sands of political promises and monetary manipulation, is now being tested by the market forces it thought it could control. The flight to hard assets has unfolded as a rational response to a fiat system under stress.
The American economic landscape presents a paradox that directly fuels the case for precious metals. On the one hand, a resilient US economy, characterized by robust employment data and moderate inflation, can temporarily boost the dollar and temper demand for safe-haven assets. However, this near-term stability is built upon a precarious and unsustainable foundation of ever-increasing debt. The US national debt recently surpassed $38 trillion, accelerating at an unprecedented pace even outside of pandemic-era spending.
The American debt problem is not an isolated concern; it has far-reaching implications for the dollar's status on the world stage. Central banks, particularly those in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), are taking note and acting accordingly. In the wake of sanctions against Russia in 2022, which saw its dollar reserves frozen, a profound realization swept across the globe: dollar-denominated assets could be weaponized. Even prior to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, global central banks were becoming wary of the ever-increasing debts of not only America but also the EU. The combination of the uncontrolled debt and the weaponization of the currencies has resulted in central banks, led by nations like China, Turkey, India, and Poland to name a few, to aggressively accumulate gold reserves to diversify away from the dollar and mitigate against such geopolitical risks. This is not a speculative move but a strategic, long-term policy decision that creates a structural demand for gold. In response to these concerns, central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves since 2022, partly motivated by the freezing of Russia's dollar assets in 2022. This behaviour aligns with Herbert Hoover's view that gold provides security when trust in governments is low. This sustained institutional demand for gold is seen as establishing a strong long-term price base. The World Gold Council reports that central banks have been net buyers of gold for 15 consecutive years, with purchases accelerating to record levels recently. This institutional demand provides a powerful and resilient price floor for gold, irrespective of short-term market noise.
The recent, albeit temporary, ebb in central bank purchases in the last quarter does not negate this long-term trend but rather reflects a tactical pause after a prolonged buying spree. The underlying imperative to diversify remains stronger than ever. The increasing influence of blocs like the BRICS also points towards a more multipolar financial world, where the US dollar's status is gradually being challenged, further bolstering the case for gold as a neutral, global reserve asset.
Silver Entering a New Price Paradigm
Gold is money. Everything else is credit.
Silver's dual-demand profile of being both an industrial and a precious metal offers a unique investment thesis. While benefiting from the same safe-haven dynamics as gold, its robust industrial demand adds a powerful growth component. The transition to a green economy, with its reliance on silver for solar panels, electric vehicles, and emerging technologies like AI, has ensured a robust and expanding demand base. The persistent supply deficits in the silver market are creating a potent recipe for continued price appreciation. ETF inflows for silver have been positive. This informs us that the investment thesis is resonating deeply with market participants. It bears note that silver is on the cusp of a major breakout of a 50-year old holding pattern. Silver has never closed a year over $35/oz before, and we are entering a new paradigm for the metal should silver holds near its current price levels. Another important point worth noting is that while silver has remained in a deficit over the past few years, a $50/oz silver price does not cure these deficits. Silver is primarily mined as a by-product and we do not expect to see a robust supply response at these price levels.
As investors in the precious metals space, we continue to be surprised by the apathy toward precious metal miners. Through 2025, we have witnessed triple-digit returns from the miners catalyzed by a combination of rising metal prices as well as strong cost controls. This has resulted in the miners generating the largest ever profit margins while continuing to reward shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The chart below shows the shares outstanding in both the GDX and the GDXJ over the course of the first three quarters of 2025. What stands out are the large decreases in units outstanding, with the GDX and GDXJ having lost ~22% and 18% of their units, respectively, through the first nine months of the year.
The sell-down of precious metal equities gives us some comfort that the bull market currently playing out in precious metals is still early in its cycle. It is no surprise that investors who have endured volatility and poor price appreciation in precious metal equities over the past several years are locking in their gains. However, we have seen similar patterns playing out before, where some asset classes continue appreciating despite negative investor flows. As a recent example, we saw investors in bullion ETFs redeem between 2021-2024 despite positive price returns. It is said that bull markets climb a wall of worry and as it pertains to precious metal equities, we are most certainly climbing a wall of anxiety and worry.
Looking ahead, we continue to see the miners going from strength to strength. We expect a strong earnings season for Q3 2025, however, it would not surprise us to see an even stronger earnings season for Q4 2025. For starters, the average gold price through Q3 2025 was ~$3450/oz for gold and $39.50/oz for silver. At the time of writing, both gold and silver are trading well above their Q3 levels. The decline we are currently experiencing in gold and silver has also affected the miners, who have given back some of their strong gains through 2025. This represents an opportune time to establish long positions in our opinions for investors who have not yet dipped their toes into the water. With hard assets and in particular, precious metals, experiencing strong tailwinds. The below is a chart we have used before to highlight the investment cycle through the lens of investment psychology. Our view is that we are somewhere between disbelief and hope as far as precious metal miners are concerned. We continue to believe we are in the early stages of the precious metal bull market. We are within the sweet spot of the investment cycle - a point of maximum financial opportunity.
Maria Smirnova and Shree Kargutkar
Sprott Asset Management
Sub-advisor to the Ninepoint Silver Equities Fund and the Ninepoint Silver Bullion Fund