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Ninepoint Silver Bullion Fund

Ninepoint Silver Bullion Fund -  October 2025
Key Takeaways
  • Silver had a highly volatile October, surging to a record high before a sharp correction, ultimately ending the month with strong overall gains.
  • Tight supply, strong industrial demand, and supportive monetary policy continued to reinforce silver’s long-term outlook despite short-term swings.

The Ninepoint Silver Bullion Fund returned +5.07% (Series F CAD) in October bringing year-to-date performance to +62.25% (Series F CAD) versus spot silver in CAD returning +5.19% in October and +64.37% year-to-date.

NINEPOINT SILVER BULLION FUND - COMPOUNDED RETURNS¹ (%) AS OF OCTOBER 31, 2025 (SERIES F NPP326) | INCEPTION DATE: MAY 10, 2011

1M

YTD

3M

6M

1YR

3YR

5YR

10YR

INCEPTION

FUND

5.07%

62.25%

33.56%

50.49%

48.34%

35.90%

15.14%

10.90%

2.44%

October 2025 proved to be a rollercoaster month for silver bullion investors, characterized by explosive gains early on, a record-breaking peak, and a sharp late-month correction. The white metal surged approximately 15.5% from September's close of $42.82/oz to end the month at $49.44, outpacing gold's more modest rally. However, this net advance masked significant volatility: silver touched an all-time high of $54.49 mid-month before plummeting over 10% in the final weeks amid profit-taking and broader market turbulence. For long-term holders, the month's fundamentals underscored silver's dual role as both an industrial powerhouse and a safe-haven asset, positioning it for potential rebounds in Q4.

Fundamentals Drove the Rally

Fundamentals remained in overdrive, with global mine supply down 2.1% year-over-year in primary production and even sharper declines in byproduct output from lead and zinc. This exacerbated a projected 2025 deficit of 218 million ounces, the widest since 2018. Industrial offtake shattered records, consuming roughly 72% of annual supply, led by a 42% surge in solar PV demand to 285 million ounces, 28% growth in EVs and 5G to 118 million ounces, and 9% expansion in electronics to 262 million ounces, fueled by AI servers and semiconductors.

Monetary Support

In October 2025, monetary support for silver bullion gained significant momentum amid a dovish global policy landscape, with the U.S. Federal Reserve implementing its second 25-basis-point interest rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%. This diminishes the opportunity cost of holding silver, a non-yielding asset, while enhancing its appeal as an inflation hedge and monetary metal.

Central Banks Emerge As New Structural Pillar

Central bank purchases marked a historic inflection, with official sector buying of physical silver emerging as a new structural pillar for the first time since the 1960s. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added 4.2 million ounces in October—its third consecutive monthly purchase—bringing its disclosed silver reserves to 18.7 million ounces. This move aligns with Beijing’s broader strategy to diversify from U.S. Treasuries and secure critical materials for domestic solar and EV supply chains. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) accumulated 1.8 million ounces, continuing the program launched in Q2 2025 to hedge rupee volatility and support India’s booming solar manufacturing sector. Smaller but symbolically significant buys came from Turkey (+0.6 moz) and Poland (+0.4 moz), both citing “portfolio resilience” amid NATO-Russia tensions. In total, central banks absorbed ~6.8 million ounces in October, which is modest versus gold but unprecedented for silver and signalled intent to continue at a 2–3 million-ounce monthly pace into 2026.

Investor Demand

Investor demand for silver bullion in October 2025 reached a fever pitch, driven by retail investors, institutional rebalancing, and tactical ETF flows that collectively absorbed over 55 million ounces across physical and paper markets (equivalent to nearly 7% of annual mine supply in a single month). Retail investors, fueled by social media hype and fears of missing the breakout, pushed physical coin and bar premiums to multi-year highs: American Silver Eagles traded at +28% over spot mid-month (versus a 2024 average of +8%). Institutional demand was equally robust: the world’s largest silver ETF, recorded net inflows of 16.8 million ounces despite a 21.4 million-ounce outflow in the final 10 days, while global physical ETF holdings rose 4.2% month-over-month. 

October 2025 should not be seen as the bursting of a bubble, but rather as a critical stress test that helped weed out short-term traders and reset overall market sentiment. In the case of silver, the combination of industrial shortages, continued monetary accommodation, and the added premium from geopolitical volatility has created a compelling opportunity with significant upside potential. The dip towards the end of the month has proven to be a valuable opportunity for disciplined investors.

Until next time, 
Ninepoint Partners

 

 

 

Sources: Bloomberg, World Gold Council, Thomson Reuters, The Silver Institute, CFTC

Historical Commentary

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  • Ninepoint Silver Strategy
    The United States has anchored the global financial system since the end of World War II through a combination of military might, economic prowess, political stability, and institutional credibility.
    Gold & Precious Minerals
  • Ninepoint Silver Strategy
    Silver had a strong 2024, rising 21.46% through the year. The Silver Institute expects that silver will yet again be in a deficit for 2024 as robust industrial demand for silver is expected to continue. The supply demand deficit is expected to continue for the fourth consecutive year. During the first three quarters of 2024, strong demand for silver and rising premiums seen in China catalyzed a move to nearly $35 per ounce—the highest level since 2012. If it were not for the large pullback silver experienced in Q4, silver would have outperformed gold’s exceptional returns.
    Gold & Precious Minerals

1All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F shares; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at 10/31/2025. 

The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks: Active management risk; Commodity risk; Concentration risk; Credit risk; Currency risk; Cybersecurity risk; Derivatives risk; Inflation risk; Interest rate risk; Market risk; Series risk; Sub-adviser risk; Substantial securityholder risk; Tax risk; Uninsured losses risk.

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