November 28, 2025
Commentary
Monthly Update
Year-to-date to November 30, the Ninepoint Global Infrastructure Fund generated a total return of 6.65% compared to the MSCI World Core Infrastructure Index, which generated a total return of 13.64%. For the month, the Fund generated a total return of 1.13% while the Index generated a total return of 2.62%.
Ninepoint Global Infrastructure Fund - Compounded Returns¹ As of November 28, 2025 (Series F NPP356) | Inception Date: September 1, 2011
1M |
YTD |
3M |
6M |
1YR |
3YR |
5YR |
10YR |
Inception |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fund |
1.13% |
6.65% |
3.76% |
3.90% |
1.53% |
10.21% |
9.71% |
9.09% |
8.30% |
MSCI World Core Infrastructure NR (CAD) |
2.62% |
13.64% |
4.37% |
6.14% |
8.79% |
8.83% |
8.50% |
8.66% |
11.00% |
It was a bit of a quieter month in November, as investors began to question the valuation levels, growth outlooks and debt loads of companies tied to the AI investment theme. The Magnificent Seven stocks took a breather, after strong year-to-date gains, and the money clearly flowed from the Information Technology sector (down 4.36% for the month) into the Health Care sector (up 9.14% for the month). Further, Nvidia’s results, reported on November 19th, were once again exceptional but the shares failed to respond positively. Finally, it was interesting to watch rate-cut expectations gyrate in November, moving from almost a 100% chance of a 25-bps cut, to a low of a 25% chance of a cut before rebounding to an 85% chance of a cut by month end. Equity markets, and especially rate-sensitive stocks, mirrored these moves, which made for some elevated intramonth volatility.
With the Q3 reporting season essentially complete, investors are now looking ahead to Q4 results, where earnings are expected to grow 7.7% (according to FactSet). This implies that full year 2025 earnings growth should come in at 11.9%, well above expectations at the beginning of the year. For full year 2026, revenue is currently expected to grow 7.1% and earnings are expected to grow 14.5%, accelerating from 2025. But valuation is still an issue, with the current forward 12-month P/E at 22.4x, well above the 5-year average of 20.0x and the 10-year average of 18.7x. Importantly, revenue and earnings growth of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 (primarily in the Communication Services and Information Technology sectors) remain significantly above the market average, which bodes well for continued strength into 2026.
The last major catalyst of the year should be the FOMC meeting on December 10th where expectations are leaning toward a 25-bps interest rate cut. As usual, the press conference will be closely followed for any clues regarding future policy, and we expect that Chairman Powell’s tone will be quite measured. However, we still think that we will get at least two more interest rate cuts in 2026, in line with consensus estimates today, which should be supportive of continued market gains. Nevertheless, we have reduced outsized allocations to individual stocks and investment themes while remaining invested in a broadly diversified portfolio, in case a growth scare or some other shock materializes over the next couple of months.
Top contributors to the year-to-date performance of the Ninepoint Global Infrastructure Fund by sector included Utilities (+838 bps) and Industrials (+213 bps), while the Real Estate (-222 bps), Energy (-30 bps) and Communication Services (-12 bps) sectors detracted from performance on an absolute basis.
On a relative basis, negative contributions from the Real Estate (-219 bps), Utilities (-189 bps) and Industrials (-85 bps) sectors detracted from performance.
We are currently overweight the Utilities and Industrials sectors and underweight the Real Estate and Energy sectors. After a quieter month in the equity markets, we believe that easier monetary policy should broaden participation in the rally through year end and into 2026. To mitigate risk, we remain focused on high quality, dividend paying infrastructure equities that have demonstrated the ability to consistently generate revenue, cash flow and earnings growth through the business cycle.
We continue to believe that the infrastructure asset class is ideally positioned to benefit from the electrification of the global economy and increased fiscal spending on infrastructure in Canada, the US and Europe. Importantly, electricity demand is expected to accelerate dramatically, led primarily by the construction of AI-focused data centers globally and the onshoring of industrial manufacturing in the US. Therefore, we are comfortable having exposure to various infrastructure sub-sectors or sub-industries in the Ninepoint Global Infrastructure Fund that are positioned to benefit from these themes, including traditional energy investments, electrical, natural gas, nuclear & multi-utilities and engineering & construction contractors.
The Ninepoint Global Infrastructure Fund was concentrated in 30 positions as at November 30, 2025, with the top 10 holdings accounting for approximately 38.0% of the fund. Over the prior fiscal year, 22 out of our 30 holdings have announced a dividend increase, with an average hike of 4.7% (median hike of 5.7%). Using a total infrastructure approach, we will continue to apply a disciplined investment process, balancing valuation, growth, and yield in an effort to generate solid risk-adjusted returns.
Jeffrey Sayer, CFA
Ninepoint Partners