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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 11.13.2025
Key Takeaways
  • IEA Shift Supports Long-Term Oil Demand – The end of the “imminent peak demand” narrative improves sentiment and valuations.
  • Peak Supply Is Now Reality – Non-OPEC production is set to plateau in early 2026 after years of underinvestment.
  • Natural Gas Demand Accelerates – Record LNG exports and rising data-center consumption strengthen the bull case.
  • Canada Faces Pipeline Constraints – Lack of new pipelines risks widening differentials and billions in lost annual revenue.

November 13, 2025

In this week’s edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of the Ninepoint Energy Strategy, breaks down a pivotal week for global energy markets — including the IEA’s surprising shift on long-term oil demand, Canada’s pipeline outlook, and the growing structural setup for the next major oil bull cycle.

With natural gas hitting all-time highs, LNG demand surging, and Mother Nature finally cooperating, Eric explains why the Ninepoint Energy Fund remains 70/30 weighted toward natural gas over oil in the near term — and why the medium-term outlook for oil has only strengthened.

Key Topics Covered:

  • IEA Abandons Peak Demand Narrative – After five years of pessimistic demand messaging, the IEA’s new Current Policies Scenario supports oil demand growth for decades.
  • Peak Supply Becoming Reality – Years of underinvestment driven by negative sentiment now point to non-OPEC supply peaking in early 2026.
  • Natural Gas Surges – LNG exports reach nearly 20 Bcf/day, cold-weather forecasts boost demand, and U.S. data-center growth accelerates the long-term bull case.
  • Canada’s Pipeline Constraint Problem – Federal “national interest” projects exclude oil pipelines, setting up widening differentials and future revenue loss.
  • Positioning Update – Near term: overweight natural gas. Medium term: oil fundamentals tightening into what could become the next major bull cycle.

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