Monthly Update
NINEPOINT FOCUSED GLOBAL DIVIDEND FUND - COMPOUNDED RETURNS¹ AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2025 (SERIES F NPP964) | INCEPTION DATE: NOVEMBER 25, 2015
1M |
YTD |
3M |
6M |
1YR |
3YR |
5YR |
10YR |
Inception |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fund |
-1.29% |
11.67% |
3.02% |
12.34% |
11.67% |
18.96% |
12.38% |
10.06% |
10.05% |
S&P Global 1200 TR (CAD) |
-0.57% |
17.22% |
2.13% |
12.24% |
17.22% |
22.23% |
14.45% |
12.70% |
12.80% |
It was a wild year for equity investors, with generally solid returns for the major indexes despite some serious volatility underneath the surface. In all honesty, the year was a difficult one for many active managers, with two significant whipsaws (triggered by the announcement of DeepSeek and “Liberation Day”) that proved tricky to navigate. Further, the traditional “Santa Claus rally” failed to materialize, although widely anticipated, which was disappointing. Despite the challenges, we are optimistic about 2026, and we firmly believe that our tried and tested investment process will generate returns that meet our high expectations over the long term.
Our optimism is premised on another good year for revenue and earnings growth. According to FactSet, the current quarterly earnings season is shaping up nicely. The number of companies that have issued positive guidance for Q4 2025 is above average, with revenue expected to grow 7.7% and earnings expected to grow 8.3% year over year. For fiscal 2026, consensus estimates are calling for revenue growth of 7.3% and earnings growth of 14.9%, suggesting another year of double-digit returns at the index level. Admittedly, valuation remains an issue, with the current forward 12-month P/E at 22.2x, well above the 5-year average of 20.0x and the 10-year average of 18.7x (again according to FactSet). But revenue and earnings growth of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 (primarily in the Communication Services and Information Technology sectors) remain significantly above the market average, which bodes well for continued strength into 2026. Whether the AI-trade can continue to power the market higher or a rotation to more cyclical, value-oriented sectors can happen will be the key debate in the coming months.
Finally, monetary policy should remain supportive in 2026, with at least two more interest rate cuts to come in 2026, possibly in June and October. But investors should be mindful that the appointment of a new Fed Chair could create some volatility heading into the mid-term elections, consistent with historical patterns. Therefore, we have reduced outsized allocations to individual stocks and investment themes while remaining invested in a broadly diversified portfolio following our tried, tested and disciplined investment process.
Top contributors to the year-to-date performance of the Ninepoint Focused Global Dividend Fund by sector included Information Technology (+473 basis points), Financials (+299 basis points) and Communication Services (+235 basis points), while only the Utilities (-106 basis points) sector detracted from performance on an absolute basis.
On a relative basis, positive return contributions from the Energy (+27 basis points), Industrials (+17 basis points) and Real Estate (+6 basis points) sectors were offset by negative contributions from the Utilities (-172 basis points), Financials (-103 basis points) and Information Technology (-64 basis points) sectors.
We are currently overweight the Financials, Information Technology and Energy sectors, while we are underweight the Communication Services, Materials and Consumer Discretionary sectors. With a fresh start to the year, we believe that an easier monetary policy should broaden participation in the equity market rally through 2026. To mitigate risk, we remain focused on high quality, dividend payers that have demonstrated the ability to consistently generate revenue and earnings growth through the business cycle.
The Ninepoint Focused Global Dividend Fund was invested in 48 positions as at December 31, 2025, with the top 10 holdings accounting for approximately 39.6% of the fund. Over the prior fiscal year, 38 out of our 48 holdings have announced a dividend increase, with an average hike of 14.4% (median hike of 8.3%). We will continue to apply a disciplined investment process, balancing various quality and valuation metrics, in an effort to generate solid risk-adjusted returns.
Jeffery Sayer, CFA
Ninepoint Partners