December 31, 2025
Commentary
For the full year ending December 31, 2025, the Ninepoint Silver Equities Fund generated a total return of 219.68%, compared to the MSCI Silver Select Index (CAD) at 188.89%. Much of this result was driven by silver’s steady move in the second half of the year, as the price rose from a low of $36/oz in July to test the $80/oz level in December and continued to rise past US$90/oz in the first weeks of January. In Q4, the Fund gained 36.46%, compared to the benchmark return of 25.86%.
NINEPOINT SILVER EQUITIES FUND - COMPOUNDED RETURNS¹ AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2025 (SERIES F NPP866) | INCEPTION DATE: FEBRUARY 29, 2012
1M |
YTD |
3M |
6M |
1YR |
3YR |
5YR |
10YR |
INCEPTION |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FUND |
18.83% |
219.68% |
36.46% |
118.78% |
219.68% |
47.83% |
14.68% |
21.57% |
6.87% |
INDEX |
9.37% |
188.89% |
25.86% |
97.56% |
188.89% |
50.90% |
18.14% |
21.49% |
5.93% |
The strong performance of silver was fueled by its dual identity, with industrial demand establishing a firm price floor while monetary demand fueling volatility and additional positive momentum.
In retrospect, 2025 was a year of two halves for the silver market. In H1 2025 silver took direction from gold, rising steadily as investors sought protection amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. In H2 2025, momentum continued to build and silver began to outpace gold, fueled by an improvement in investor demand amid tariff related dislocation in an already tight physical silver market. The attraction of silver as an investment in late 2025 was also supported by three consecutive Federal Reserve rate cuts, which lowered the opportunity cost for non-yielding assets resulting in higher investor demand and ETFs inflow, accelerating price gains. In Q4 2025 silver outperformed gold by 41.66% and the gold/silver ratio declined to a low of 57 in late December.
After a period of stagnation and limited investment in supply, global silver demand is seeing a period of consistent growth from the solar panel and green energy sectors while AI and EV applications are expected to add to demand growth in the future. On the supply side, the silver industry struggles to meet demand and supply growth is largely dependent on existing Latin American operations and improved recycling (a significant source of silver supply). This is a strong set up for the silver industry as the strong industrial demand growth is taking place in the context of a multi-year structural physical market deficit, which can elevate price reaction. In 2025 the threat of new trade barriers also had a significant impact on prices as uncertainty surrounding Section 232 caused physical silver inflows into the United States, and away from the LME, resulting in the elevated lease rates and a tight market for industrial end users.
As silver prices improved, the Gold/Silver ratio moved lower, trending toward its long-term historical average. This shift coincided with an increase in investor interest, as evidenced by consistent ETF inflows throughout the fourth quarter. While retail demand has picked up, ETF holdings remain low compared to the 2020 peak, suggesting there may be room for further capital to enter the sector as the cycle progresses.
From an operational perspective, the sector appears to be in a healthy position. Margins have expanded alongside rising silver prices which should allow producers to generate consistent free cash flow. Consolidation has reduced the number of high-quality investable names and, as the sector recapitalizes and rebuilds, new investment opportunities have continued to surface.
The portfolio continues to follow a balanced approach to managing geopolitical risk and asset quality while remaining diversified in term of development stage and market capitalization with a focus on capturing attractive risk-adjusted exposure.
At the individual security level, our top contributors for Q4 2025 were Hycroft and First Majestic Silver. Both companies saw increased market interest due to their leverage to the silver price and the scale of their respective resource bases.
Conversely, performance was slightly offset by Dolly Varden Silver. Dolly Varden took a pause after a new round of equity issuance and as the market digests the ContangoORE transaction.
2026 Outlook and Investment Strategy
Looking ahead to 2026, the silver price has continued its positive momentum reaching a high of US$90 before retreating modestly in mid-January on news that Sections 232 tariffs on silver are not imminent. Our investment focus remains on identifying quality producers, developers and explorers in the silver space that are well-positioned to benefit from the rise in the silver price, while minimizing operating and political risk in the Fund. The fund remained positioned in both producers (~48%) as well as early-stage developers and explorers (~36%) with incremental capital largely invested in the earlier stage names.
Nawojka Wachowiak, M.Sc., CIM
Ninepoint Partners