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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 1.15.2026
Key Takeaways
  • U.S. shale faces structural decline
  • Canadian oil assets grow more valuable
  • Recent volatility created selective opportunities
  • Natural gas prices below sustainable levels
  • Energy outlook remains constructive into H2

January 15, 2026

In this week’s update, Eric shares key takeaways from meetings with Canadian oil and natural gas producers following the Peterson Conference in Calgary. Against a backdrop of declining U.S. shale production, rising geopolitical uncertainty, and volatile weather-driven gas markets, Eric outlines why the long-term outlook for energy remains compelling and where the best opportunities may lie today.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Twilight of U.S. Shale – EIA forecasts confirm a structural decline in U.S. shale production, reinforcing the long-term value of non-OPEC supply.
  • Canadian Oil Advantage – Debt-free oil sands producers with decades of inventory, growing volumes, and massive share buyback potential at $70 oil.
  • Buying the Panic – Market fear around Venezuela and U.S. politics created opportunities to add to high-conviction positions.
  • Pipeline Reality Check – Limited incremental Canadian egress beyond current expansions highlights future supply constraints.
  • Natural Gas Selloff Creates Opportunity – Prices near $3.15 are well below the marginal cost of supply, setting up a bullish imbalance.
  • LNG Demand Surge – U.S. LNG demand expected to grow by ~3 BCF/day in 2026, with LNG Canada 2 adding further support.
  • $4 Gas as the Floor – Discipline from producers limits supply growth, making current prices unsustainable longer term.
  • Equity Valuation Disconnect – High-quality U.S. gas producers now trading at 13–14% free cash flow yields.
  • Oil Upside Risks – Iran, Venezuela, and geopolitical instability skew near-term oil risks to the upside.

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