Ninepoint Gold Bullion Fund

The Ninepoint Gold Bullion Fund returned +3.82% (Series F CAD) in Q3 2026, and year-to-date performance is essentially flat at -0.54%.

NINEPOINT GOLD BULLION FUND – COMPOUNDED RETURNS¹ (%) AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2026 (SERIES F) | INCEPTION DATE: MARCH 18, 2009

The third quarter showed gold's resilience. The metal started July near the lows it reached at the end of Q2 and climbed for two months as markets reconsidered the Fed's path. In September a hawkish shift by the Fed pushed it back down. Gold ended the quarter higher after a volatile September. Price swings reflect its short-term sensitivity to real rates and the US dollar, but the mix of buyers kept broadening, and that shift is the more important part of the quarter's story.

Price Performance: Recovery, Then Retest

Gold closed September at roughly $4,176/oz, up about 3.7% for the quarter, although the metal is still down about 4% year-to-date in USD terms.

Through most of July, gold traded around the $4,000 level. Renewed fighting between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices up and strengthened expectations that the Fed would raise rates. A weaker-than-expected July payrolls report in early August reversed that pressure. The dollar fell to its lowest level since mid-June, and gold rose to nearly $4,600 by late August.

September gave back much of that gain. Gold fell 8.5% during the month (LBMA PM, USD) as Treasury yields and the dollar rose sharply together. Canadian investors felt a smaller decline: the stronger US dollar limited gold's September loss in CAD terms to 6.4%, and in Canadian dollars gold is roughly flat for the year.

Key Market Drivers

1. The Fed Moved From Signaling to Hiking

The sequence played out across the whole quarter. At the July FOMC meeting the committee held rates, but three members dissented in favour of a hike. Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks lifted market pricing for a September hike. A strong August payrolls report and a slightly firmer core inflation print confirmed that expectation. On September 16 the FOMC voted unanimously to raise the target range by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since July 2023. The updated projections point to one more hike before year-end. For a non-yielding asset, a central bank that is actively removing accommodation is the clearest short-term headwind, and it is one the market has now absorbed.

2. Yields and the Dollar Rose Together

In September the US 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 50 bps to about 5.3%, and the dollar index gained roughly 2%. The World Gold Council's attribution model identifies these two moves as the main contributors to the month's decline. When both rise at the same time, the opportunity cost of holding gold goes up and gold becomes more expensive for non-US buyers.

3. Futures Liquidation, Not Investor Flight

September's selloff came mainly from futures positioning. COMEX managed-money positions fell by about 84 tonnes, and total spreading positions fell by more than 150 tonnes. Over the same period, global gold ETFs recorded about US$10 billion (67 tonnes) of inflows, led by North America. For the quarter as a whole, global gold ETFs took in a record US$31 billion. The move lower reflected leveraged and short-term traders reducing positions while longer-horizon investors stepped in to buy the dip. That is a constructive pattern, and it echoes what we saw in Q2.

4. Europe Bought Gold as a Fiscal Hedge

The most notable flow story of the quarter came from Europe. UK-listed gold ETFs took in 54 tonnes in Q3, with inflows in almost every week, and solid buying in France and Germany pushed European inflows above North American inflows for the quarter. According to WGC analysis, the UK inflows in excess of model predictions moved alongside the rise in the UK term premium. This suggests investors are reading rising bond yields as a signal of fiscal and inflation risk, and that demand does not depend on rate cuts.

5. Central Banks: Still Buying, at a More Measured Pace

The WGC's Q2 Gold Demand Trends report, released in late July, showed central banks adding a net 289 tonnes in the second quarter, up 62% year-over-year. The same report revised Q1 official-sector purchases down sharply, so first-half buying was below the exceptional pace of recent years. Even so, the WGC expects central banks to keep buying over the next 12 months. Its most recent survey found that 45% of reserve managers plan to increase their own gold holdings over the next 12 months.

Outlook

Gold enters Q4 with a tougher rate backdrop than at the start of the year, but its main sources of demand are intact, and several are strengthening.

The rate headwind is known and largely priced in. Markets now accept that rates will stay higher for longer, and the September hike was widely expected before it happened. Recent US data have eased the case for another immediate hike. If the Fed pauses at its next meeting, the pressure from real rates that dominated September could ease.

Higher yields may be supporting gold, not only hurting it. Persistent inflation and fiscal strain are pushing government bond yields higher in the US, the UK, and continental Europe. That is the environment in which gold works as a hedge. European ETF demand suggests some investors are already responding this way. If yields stay elevated even as rate-hike expectations soften, the fiscal case for gold becomes stronger.

The buyer base is broader than it was a year ago. Central banks, Asian investors in the OTC and physical markets, and now European ETF investors all have reasons to own gold that are largely independent of the Fed's next move. This mix should help reduce downside volatility over time, as it did in September when ETF demand absorbed a large reduction in futures positions.

Geopolitics remains a two-way risk. The US–Iran conflict has complicated gold's role as a safe haven this year, because higher oil prices have fed into rate expectations. A lasting de-escalation would remove some of gold's geopolitical premium, while a renewed escalation could again strengthen the inflation-driven case for further tightening.

For investors with a multi-year horizon, we see gold as a core strategic holding, and this quarter reinforced that view. It hedges fiscal, currency, and inflation risk, and its demand base has held firm through two difficult quarters.