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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 11.6.2025
Key Takeaways
  • Natural gas surges above $4, boosting cash flow and fund positioning.
  • OPEC adds supply, but inventories stay tight and 2026 looks bullish.
  • MEG–Cenovus and NuVista–Ovintiv deals accelerate energy consolidation.
  • Ottawa signals shift away from oil-production cap toward Pathways plan.
  • U.S. shale waning and OPEC spare capacity tightening support long-term upside.

November 6, 2025

In this week’s edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, breaks down a pivotal week for the energy sector — highlighted by a surge in natural gas prices, major M&A developments, and early signs of a policy shift from Ottawa.

With natural gas strips averaging over $4 for the next three years and spot prices spiking on colder weather forecasts, Eric discusses why roughly two-thirds of the fund is positioned in natural gas producers with 11–14% free cash flow yields. He also unpacks U.S. LNG expansion, data-center-driven demand, and supply discipline among top producers.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Natural Gas Reawakening – Strip above $4 supports strong free cash flow yields.
  • LNG Expansion – U.S. Gulf Coast ramp-up reinforces long-term demand.
  • OPEC Output Strategy – Seasonal moderation, short-term softness, and future tightness.
  • U.S. Shale in Decline – “Twilight” phase reshaping global supply dynamics.
  • M&A Momentum – MEG–Cenovus and NuVista–Ovintiv reshape Canada’s mid-cap landscape.
  • Policy Pivot – Ottawa signals retreat from oil-production cap, favouring Pathways.
  • Inventory Insights – Oil and product stockpiles remain near multi-year lows.
  • Market Outlook – Positioning for 2026 oil recovery amid structural undersupply.

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