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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 1.8.2026
Key Takeaways
  • Canadian oil stocks sold off on Venezuela fears, but rapid supply growth there is highly unrealistic.
  • $50 oil stops production growth, it doesn’t create it.
  • 2026 likely marks peak non-OPEC supply, with U.S. shale growth fading.
  • Oil demand is still growing faster than expected.
  • Market panic is creating attractive long-term buying opportunities.

January 8, 2026

In this week’s Energy Market Update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, breaks down the sharp sell-off in Canadian oil equities following major geopolitical developments involving Venezuela and shifting U.S. energy policy under President Trump.

With markets gripped by fear around potential Venezuelan supply growth, falling oil prices, and renewed pressure on Canadian producers, Eric explains why the market narrative is deeply flawed, and why today’s volatility may be creating compelling long-term opportunities for disciplined energy investors.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Geopolitical Shockwaves – Regime change in Venezuela, tanker seizures, and U.S. policy shifts trigger panic selling in Canadian oil equities.
  • Venezuelan Supply Reality Check – Severely degraded infrastructure, lack of rule of law, and massive capital requirements limit near-term production upside.
  • $50 Oil “Death Zone” – Oil prices in the 50s halt global supply growth rather than encourage it.
  • Non-OPEC Supply Peak – 2026 marks the likely peak for non-OPEC production, led by the twilight of U.S. shale growth.
  • Demand Still Growing – Early 2026 data shows oil demand rising faster than consensus expectations.
  • OPEC Spare Capacity Shrinking – Limited buffer leaves the market vulnerable to future supply shocks.
  • Structural Bull Market Ahead – Offshore development and higher long-term oil prices will be required to meet global demand.
  • Buying Into Fear – Market panic creates rare valuation opportunities in high-quality Canadian energy names with long reserve lives and strong free cash flow potential.

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