March 31, 2026
Commentary
The Ninepoint Mining Evolution Fund had a volatile first quarter of 2026 in a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and changing interest rate expectations. The Fund remains exposed mainly to precious and base metals as well as critical minerals. As tension rose in the Middle East, we increased the exposure to oil and gas. In Q1, the Fund gained 15.57%, compared to the benchmark return of 11.48%. From a commodity perspective, the relative outperformance versus the benchmark was underpinned by the Fund’s overweight positions in uranium and rare earths, as well as the addition of oil and gas via the Ninepoint Energy Fund.
NINEPOINT MINING EVOLUTION FUND - COMPOUNDED RETURNS¹ AS OF MARCH 31, 2026 (SERIES F NPP864) | INCEPTION DATE: OCTOBER 18, 2011
1M |
YTD |
3M |
6M |
1YR |
3YR |
5YR |
10YR |
INCEPTION |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FUND |
-12.88% |
15.57% |
15.57% |
23.80% |
90.12% |
23.09% |
15.92% |
11.84% |
4.66% |
MSCI WORLD IMI SEL MTLS&MNG AND C&CF 5% CAP INDEX |
-15.67% |
11.48% |
11.48% |
27.35% |
88.89% |
29.87% |
21.94% |
19.40% |
8.22% |
As of March 31, 2026, the Fund’s commodity mix remained dominated by precious metals (35.6% vs the index at 50.6%), copper (24.5% vs the index at 19.8%) and uranium (13.3% vs the index at 5.6%). In addition, the Fund equity holdings included exposure to rare earths (5.9%) and other critical minerals (8.55%), while the energy weight increased from 2.3% to 6.9% (vs 0% in the index).
The commodity complex had a volatile quarter. Precious metals corrected from their January peak following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, which the market interpreted as potentially a more hawkish Fed stance, with potentially fewer rate cuts. After stabilizing in February, the precious metals complex was once again under pressure in mid-March as the market digested the implications of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. Our positive stance on gold remains unchanged as Central Bank demand continues and Western investors remain underweight the asset class.
Following a strong Q4 2025, copper prices continued to rise in early Q1 2026, peaking at US$14,527/t in late January before retreating alongside the broader market weakness as oil shock-induced recession fears weighed on sentiment. Copper equities underperformed the metal and were down by ~20% vs the LME copper price decline of ~7.8% since the start of the Middle East conflict.
As a result of our positive long-term outlook for nuclear power growth, the Fund maintained its overweight position in uranium equities. Uranium spot prices also remained volatile in Q1 2026, surging 25% in January to over $101/lb before moderating amid broader market weakness to average $86/lb for the quarter. Meanwhile, long-term uranium prices rose steadily during Q1 2026, increasing from $86.5/lb at the end of 2025 to $91.5/lb by the end of March. India’s long-term uranium supply agreement underscores that the increase in long-term prices is being supported by renewed contracting activity. Uranium equities outperformed the commodity during the quarter, increasing 15% compared to a ~3% rise in uranium spot price.
The Fund has continued to invest in a variety of critical minerals, including rare earths, which outperformed in Q1 2026 as the market digested China’s tariffs and export controls.
At the individual security level, our top contributors for the quarter included copper developer Arizona Sonoran, which received a premium offer from copper producer Hudbay. Lynas Rare Earth was also an outperformer as the market digested the announcements of new partnerships and new long-term off-take contracts, which included floor prices above the spot price.
The detractors to Fund performance during Q1 2026 included copper producer Ivanhoe Mines, which adjusted its long-term mine plan and production expectations and copper developer Hot Chili which was impacted by the general market volatility.
Outlook and Investment Strategy
We continue to believe the general metals and mining space is moving into a decade-plus bull cycle, with the primary drivers for the sector shifted to themes like geopolitics/national security, technological advances, and environmental policy. In the Fund, we continue to focus on high-quality names across the metals complex to provide our investors with diversified exposure to this evolving landscape. The commodity mix in the fund remains focused on metals with positive growth fundamentals and now includes a higher weighting in oil and gas via the Ninepoint Energy Fund.
Nawojka Wachowiak, M.Sc., CIM
Ninepoint Partners