Alt Thinking March 31, 2026
Commentary
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Ninepoint Silver Bullion Fund

Ninepoint Silver Bullion Fund - March 2026
Investment Team
  • Sprott Asset Management
    Sprott Asset Management
    Sprott Asset Management LP is an alternative asset manager and a global leader in precious metal and real asset investments. Through its subsidiaries in Canada, the US and Asia, the Corporation is dedicated to providing investors with best-in-class investment strategies that include Exchange Listed Products, Alternative Asset Management and Private Resource Investments. The Corporation also operates Merchant Banking and Brokerage businesses in both Canada and the US. Sprott is based in Toront...
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Key Takeaways
  • Silver surged to a record high before correcting, ultimately stabilizing in a strong consolidation range ($72–$80/oz) after extreme volatility driven by supply deficits and industrial demand.
  • Structural tightness deepened—ongoing supply deficits, shrinking inventories, strong industrial use, and persistent institutional/sovereign accumulation continue to underpin a durable long‑term bull case for silver.

The Ninepoint Silver Bullion Fund returned +6.17% (Series F CAD) in Q1 2026, bringing 1‑year performance to +110.31%, compared with the Silver Spot Index, which returned +6.31% in Q1 and +113.18% over the past year.

NINEPOINT SILVER BULLION FUND - COMPOUNDED RETURNS¹ (%) AS OF MARCH 31, 2026 (SERIES F NPP326) | INCEPTION DATE: MAY 10, 2011

1M

YTD

3M

6M

1YR

3YR

5YR

10YR

INCEPTION

FUND

-18.18%

6.17%

6.17%

60.17%

110.31%

45.61%

26.08%

15.98%

5.31%

SILVER SPOT (CAD)

-18.26%

6.31%

6.31%

61.08%

113.18%

47.51%

27.79%

17.95%

7.32%

The first quarter of 2026 will likely be remembered as one of the most volatile periods in the history of the silver market. Silver transitioned from a speculative "moonshot" in January to a grounded, fundamentally driven asset by the end of March. For bullion investors, the quarter offered a masterclass in the metal's dual identity as both a high-beta financial instrument and a critical industrial commodity.

Price Performance: From Triple Digits to Consolidation

Silver’s rally in the final quarter of 2025 was driven by a "perfect storm" of structural supply deficits and aggressive institutional accumulation. While global supply deficits persisted for a fifth year (projected at 95 million ounces by the Silver Institute), the price action was specifically catalyzed by three pillars: industrial demand, a resurgence in ETF flows and central bank positioning.

Industrial Demand

Silver entered 2026 with immense momentum, opening the year at approximately $74.00/oz. The market quickly entered a "melt-up" phase, driven by a combination of retail FOMO (fear of missing out) and a squeeze on physical inventories.

  • The January Peak: On January 29, silver reached a staggering all-time high of $121.62/oz. This move was amplified by leveraged ETFs and a collapse in the gold-silver ratio, which briefly dipped toward 40:1.
  • The February Correction: The rally was checked in early February following the nomination of a more hawkish Federal Reserve chair and a sharp 30–35% correction that saw prices retreat toward the $71–$75 range.
  • Quarter-End Status: As of late March, silver has established a firm base between $72 and $80/oz, representing a healthy consolidation after the historic volatility of the preceding weeks.

Key Market Drivers

1. The Structural Supply Deficit

The fundamental "bull case" for silver has moved from theory to mathematical reality. 2026 marks the sixth consecutive year of a structural supply deficit.

  • Production Stagnation: Global mine supply remains relatively flat (projected at ~820 million ounces), as new projects face long lead times and environmental regulatory hurdles.
  • Inventory Depletion: Inventories at major exchanges (COMEX and LBMA) have reportedly declined by over 25%, leading to record-high lease rates in London and significant premiums on physical bullion coins and bars.

2. The Green Energy "Conductivity" Premium

Industrial demand now accounts for nearly 80% of annual mining production.

  • Solar & EVs: Photovoltaic silver consumption is projected to exceed 200 million ounces this year. Additionally, the rapid expansion of 5G infrastructure and AI data centers—which require high-efficiency silver-coated semiconductors—has created a "floor" for demand that is largely independent of the broader economic cycle.

3. Geopolitics and Macro-Policy

Silver's safe-haven appeal was reignited by tensions in the Middle East and concerns over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While a late-quarter ceasefire softened oil prices and boosted equity markets, the underlying "inflationary narrative" remains. Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve, with expectations of potential rate cuts in the second half of 2026 providing a tailwind for non-yielding assets like silver.

4. ETF Flows

After a record-breaking 2025, ETF inflows moderated but remained solidly positive in Q1, absorbing an additional 45 million ounces. The key shift in Q1 was not the volume of inflows, but their nature.

  • With LBMA vaults not replenishing and COMEX registered inventories remaining near historic lows, any new ETF demand now directly contributes to the physical squeeze. The market has shifted from absorbing "loose" silver to competing for mined and recycled ounces.
  • Institutional Stickiness: Unlike the "hot money" that can chase momentum, analysis of Q1 flows suggests that the institutional capital that entered in late 2025 has remained. This indicates a strategic, long-term allocation to silver as both an inflation hedge and a play on industrial demand.

5. Central Bank Positioning

The sovereign accumulation trend that began in 2025 became more entrenched in Q1 2026.

  • Russia: Reports indicate Russia continued its policy of diverting domestic mine supply directly into state reserves, effectively withholding nearly 10 million ounces from the global market during the quarter.
  • Saudi Arabia & BRICS+: While direct purchases were less publicized, silver holdings in BRICS-aligned sovereign wealth funds showed a marked increase. The strategy appears to be a quiet, steady accumulation to avoid causing excessive price spikes while still achieving reserve diversification goals away from the US Dollar.
  • India: Following the government's policy changes, domestic silver ETFs in India saw record inflows during Q1. This has created a powerful new pillar of institutionalized demand that is now a permanent feature of the market.

In conclusion, the first quarter of 2026 solidified silver’s transition from a speculative peak into a fundamentally grounded asset with a significantly higher price floor. The stabilization observed in late March suggests that the market is now underpinned by a persistent structural supply deficit and indispensable industrial demand, strengthening the case for silver as a strategic long-term allocation.

For investors, the metal now offers a compelling dual benefit: acting as a resilient hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty while capturing the sustained growth of the green energy and AI sectors. This shift from "hot money" toward institutional, long-term holdings indicates that silver is increasingly valued for its physical scarcity, positioning it as a durable and potentially rewarding component of a modern, diversified portfolio.

Sincerely, 
Ninepoint Partners


All figures in USD unless stated otherwise.

Historical Commentary

View All
  • Commentary
    December 2025
    Ninepoint Silver Bullion Fund
    The Ninepoint Silver Bullion Fund returned +50.9% (Series F CAD) in Q4 2025 bringing annual performance to +132.9% (Series F CAD).
    Commodities
    Gold & Precious Minerals
  • Commentary
    October 2025
    Ninepoint Silver Bullion Fund
    The Ninepoint Silver Bullion Fund returned +5.1% (Series F CAD) in October bringing year-to-date performance to +62.3% (Series F CAD) versus spot silver in CAD returning +5.2% in October and +64.4% year-to-date.
    Commodities
    Gold & Precious Minerals
  • Commentary
    December 2024
    Ninepoint Silver Strategy
    Silver had a strong 2024, rising 21.46% through the year. The Silver Institute expects that silver will yet again be in a deficit for 2024 as robust industrial demand for silver is expected to continue. The supply demand deficit is expected to continue for the fourth consecutive year. During the first three quarters of 2024, strong demand for silver and rising premiums seen in China catalyzed a move to nearly $35 per ounce—the highest level since 2012. If it were not for the large pullback silver experienced in Q4, silver would have outperformed gold’s exceptional returns.
    Gold & Precious Minerals
View All
All Funds
  • NPP326
    (Series F)
    Mutual Funds Exchange Traded Funds Bullion
    Performance as at 3/31/2026
    1 Year
    110.31%
    3 Year
    45.61%
    5 Year
    26.08%
    10 Year
    15.98%
    Incept.1
    5.31%
    1 Inception Date 5/10/2011

    NAV

    $22.47 -$0.40 (-1.77%)
    As at 4/20/2026
    Growth of $10,000 Invested as at 3/31/2026
    Go To Fund

    All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F shares; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at 3/31/2026. Where applicable, all figures are annualized and based on monthly returns since inception. Risk-free rate and minimum acceptable rate calculated using rolling 90-day CDN T-bill rate. The rate of return or mathematical table shown is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the mutual fund or returns on investment in the mutual fund. Top ten holdings, sector allocation and geographic allocation as at 3/31/2026. Top ten holdings based on % of net asset value. Sector allocation based on % of net asset value. Geographic allocation based on % of net asset value and excludes cash. Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Cash and cash equivalents include non-portfolio assets and/or liabilities.

    The rate of return is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the investment fund or returns on investment in the investment fund.

    The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks: Active management risk; Commodity risk; Concentration risk; Credit risk; Currency risk; Cybersecurity risk; Derivatives risk; Inflation risk; Interest rate risk; Market risk; Series risk; Sub-adviser risk; Substantial securityholder risk; Tax risk; Uninsured losses risk.

    Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to a number of funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), and other expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rates of return for series F units of the Funds for the period ended 3/31/2026 are based on the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to purchase securities of the Funds.

    The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not a resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.

    Ninepoint Partners LP: Toll Free: 1.866.299.9906. Dealer Services: CIBC Mellon GSSC Record Keeping Services: Toll Free: 1.877.358.0540

1All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F shares; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at 3/31/2026. The Index is 100% Silver Spot (CAD) Index and is computed by Ninepoint Partners LP based on publicly available index information.

The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks: Active management risk; Commodity risk; Concentration risk; Credit risk; Currency risk; Cybersecurity risk; Derivatives risk; Inflation risk; Interest rate risk; Market risk; Series risk; Sub-adviser risk; Substantial securityholder risk; Tax risk; Uninsured losses risk.

Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to the Ninepoint Funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), and other expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rate of return for series F shares of the Fund for the period ended 3/31/2026 is based on the historical annual compounded total return including changes in share value and reinvestment of all distributions and does not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.

The opinions, estimates and projections (“information”) contained within this report are solely those of Ninepoint Partners LP and are subject to change without notice. Ninepoint Partners makes every effort to ensure that the information has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However, Ninepoint Partners assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages, whether direct or indirect, which arise out of the use of this information. Ninepoint Partners is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. The information should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Please contact your own personal advisor on your particular circumstances.

Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any investment funds managed by Ninepoint Partners LP. Any reference to a particular company is for illustrative purposes only and should not to be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell nor should it be considered as an indication of how the portfolio of any investment fund managed by Ninepoint Partners LP is or will be invested.

Ninepoint Partners LP and/ or its affiliates may collectively beneficially own/control 1% or more of any class of the equity securities of the issuers mentioned in this report. Ninepoint Partners LP and/or its affiliates may hold short position in any class of the equity securities of the issuers mentioned in this report. During the preceding 12 months, Ninepoint Partners LP and/or its affiliates may have received remuneration other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services from the issuers mentioned in this report.