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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 7.30.2026
Key Takeaways
  • The real signal is US SPR sitting near the 300 million barrel floor with no room for meaningful draws — ignore the geopolitical noise.
  • Middle Eastern production remains down roughly six and a half million barrels per day with only two vessels inbound versus 40 to 45 needed.

July 30, 2026

In this week's edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, explains that despite the insane volatility of the past week, the critical signal remains the US SPR now sitting at 307 million barrels near the 300 million barrel floor. Eric discusses the geopolitical noise masking the real story - inbound vessel counts to the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's decision to control the strait rather than pursue nuclear weapons, direct Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure including Abqaiq, and why only two vessels were inbound last night versus the 40 to 45 needed to restore Middle Eastern production.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Signal vs. Noise – Focus on the data: US SPR at 307 million barrels near the 300 million barrel minimum operating level, not the headlines.
  • Strait of Hormuz – Inbound vessels the critical metric; only two last night versus 40 to 45 needed to empty onshore storage.
  • Middle Eastern Production – Still down roughly six and a half million barrels per day.
  • Iran's Strategic Decision – Control of the strait provides more tactical leverage than nuclear weapons.
  • Saudi Infrastructure Hit – Houthis striking Abqaiq, the most important oil producing facility on planet Earth processing up to seven million barrels per day.
  • Refined Product Tightness – Record crack spreads in jet fuel and diesel.

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