Commentary
The Ninepoint Gold and Precious Minerals Fund (the Fund) navigated a volatile but constructive third quarter, as gold recovered from its Q2 lows before the much anticipated rate hike somewhat dampened sentiment in September. On a quarter-to-date basis as of September 30, 2026, the Fund generated a total return of +16.73%, compared to the benchmark's return of +16.34%. On a year-to-date basis, the Fund returned +4.53% versus +9.52% for the benchmark.
NINEPOINT GOLD & PRECIOUS MINERALS FUND - COMPOUNDED RETURNS¹ (%) AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2026 (SERIES F NPP300) | INCEPTION DATE: OCTOBER 13, 2004
|
|
1M |
YTD |
3M |
6M |
1YR |
3YR |
5YR |
10YR |
15YR |
20YR |
INCEPTION |
|
Ninepoint Gold and Precious Minerals Fund |
-6.46% |
4.53% |
16.73% |
4.96% |
25.01% |
57.08% |
26.83% |
13.70% |
6.33% |
6.69% |
8.14% |
|
100% S&P/TSX Global Gold TR CAD |
-8.69% |
9.52% |
16.34% |
-1.56% |
22.51% |
54.45% |
29.90% |
15.86% |
7.07% |
7.22% |
7.99% |
Gold began the quarter on the back foot, extending the Q2 correction, and tested and held the US$4,000/oz support level in late July as the market continued to digest Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone and a firmer US dollar. Renewed Middle East tensions also added to the volatility, pushing Brent back above US$100/bbl and reopening the safe-haven bid.
From these lows, gold began to recover in early August as a run of soft US jobs, CPI and PPI data pulled September rate-hike odds down. The move accelerated sharply on August 19, when the US Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its long-end liquidity-support buyback operations beginning September 9, following a spike in the 30-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high of 5.3%. The announcement reignited the “debasement trade”: the US dollar index fell to its lowest level since mid-May and gold jumped, briefly trading above US$4,600/oz in the days that followed. By early September gold had settled into a US$4,300–$4,500/oz trading range before the FOMC's September meeting delivered its first rate-hike since 2023, raising the federal funds rate 25bp in a unanimous vote, alongside a hawkish dot plot in which 16 of 18 officials still favoured at least one more hike before year-end. Gold sold off on the decision and spent the remainder of the quarter hovering around the US$4,300/oz level.
Importantly, the structural pillar of central bank demand continued to firm up. Central banks purchased a quarterly record 289 tonnes in Q2 2026, a 62% increase year-over-year according to the World Gold Council, with Q3 figures not due until after quarter-end but early indications pointing to continued strong demand. More notably, the return of Western investors we flagged last quarter is now evident: global gold-backed ETFs added roughly US$18 billion, the second-largest monthly inflow on record, pushing collective holdings to an all-time high of 4,189 tonnes.
Meanwhile, the fundamentals for gold equities remained robust. With gold prices still averaging well above 2025 levels, producers continued to operate at record all-in sustaining cost margins in the US$3,000/oz range, generating substantial free cash flow that is largely being returned through dividends and buybacks. Despite this, equities continue to trade at a discount to their historical multiples. With balance sheets in a net cash position and buy-back in place, we believe the sector remains poised for a fundamental re-rating.
During the third quarter, the Fund's top contributors were West Africa-focused developers including PDI Gold and Turaco Gold, as well as Yukon-focused Snowline Gold. PDI Gold re-rated as it progressed toward Bankan DFS completion and completed its transition to a mid-tier producer following the April Robex merger. Turaco Gold outperformed on strong exploration results across the Afema project, including deep drilling at Woulo Woulo that extended mineralization well below the current resource shell. Snowline Gold also had a strong quarter as it advanced its fully-funded 2026 field program at the Valley gold deposit. The largest detractors were Great Pacific Gold, Orosur Mining, and Goldsky Resources.
Outlook & Investment Strategy
We continue to view gold's recent volatility as noise within a still-intact, multi-year structural bull market. The Fed's September hike, and its signal that at least one further increase is likely this year, means we would not rule out further near-term price volatility. However, the bigger question we posed last quarter – when gold would regain positive momentum and investor interest – found at least a partial answer in Q3, as the return of Western investors we identified as the key missing catalyst materialized in August and has persisted into September. With central bank demand structurally underpinned, global debt levels near record highs, and the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility still being tested, we believe the conditions for a resumption of the broader gold bull cycle remain firmly in place.
In the meantime, the Fund remains holding on quality, catalyst-rich companies that offer attractive risk-adjusted exposure and are well positioned to outperform peers.
Nawojka, Henry, Eric
Ninepoint Partners