Commentary
In Q3 2026, the Ninepoint Silver Equities Fund generated a total return of +10.35%, compared to the benchmark's return of +14.24%. On a year-to-date basis, the Fund returned -0.95% versus +7.04% for the benchmark.
NINEPOINT SILVER EQUITIES FUND - COMPOUNDED RETURNS¹ AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2026 (SERIES F NPP866) | INCEPTION DATE: FEBRUARY 29, 2012
|
|
1M |
YTD |
3M |
6M |
1YR |
3YR |
5YR |
10YR |
INCEPTION |
|
Ninepoint Silver Equities F |
-11.38% |
-0.95% |
10.35% |
-3.98% |
35.16% |
62.13% |
22.79% |
11.05% |
6.44% |
|
MSCI ACWI Select Silver Miner IMI Net Total Return (CAD) |
-9.81% |
7.04% |
14.24% |
1.92% |
34.73% |
64.80% |
27.70% |
12.09% |
6.11% |
Silver has been relatively range-bound in Q3, trading with new trading of range of $55-70/oz. Like gold, the silver price rallied through August, gaining roughly 20% on the month and briefly trading above US$71/oz. The move was driven by softer US jobs, CPI and PPI data that pulled September rate-hike odds down from roughly 50% to just above 30% and, further accelerated by the US Treasury's August 19 announcement that it would at least double the size of its long-end liquidity-support buyback operations, reigniting the "debasement trade" and pushing the US dollar to a multi-month low. Silver consolidated in September as the FOMC delivered its first rate-hike since 2023 and long-end Treasury yields moved sharply higher, with the 10-year touching 5.22%, its highest level since June 2007. Silver ended the quarter in a US$62–$66/oz range, with the gold-silver ratio around 66:1 versus the long-term ratio of 60:1.
While the structural physical deficit in the silver market remains the key long-term driver for continuing price support, the positive price momentum in Q3 was tied to stronger investment demand. Mirroring the resurgence in gold ETF flows, silver also saw investment demand pick up meaningfully during August's rally, with silver ETF flows turning positive and world-known total silver ETF holdings moving above 800 Moz during the quarter. Physical coin and bar demand also remains on track for an approximately 18% increase in 2026.
Silver equities tracked the metal's Q3 rally and rebounded from their mid-year lows. With silver averaging well above 2025 levels, 2026 marks an inflection point for the industry as producers are generating substantial free cash flow and balance sheets move into a net cash position. We are beginning to see some small-scale M&A come into play, but major producers have stayed disciplined and continue to reward shareholders through increased buyback programs.
During the third quarter, our top contributors were Discovery Mining, GoGold Resources, and Santacruz Silver. Discovery Mining continued to re-rate as the market digests continuing exploration results and the acquisition of the Kidd Creek complex. GoGold Resources outperformed after receiving permits to start the construction of its fully-funded Los Ricos South project. Santacruz Silver benefited from its direct operating leverage to higher silver prices. The key detractors were developers Hycroft Mining and AbraSilver, both of which gave back significant gains from the previous quarter.
Outlook and Investment Strategy
Our positive outlook for silver remains unchanged and we view silver as being set up for a multi-year structural bull market. While most of the price momentum this quarter was driven by investment demand which was in turn driven by "macro" trends and the reignition of the debasement trade following the Treasury's buyback expansion. Meanwhile, our longer term positive outlook for silver remains unchanged with the physical market remaining in a multi-year structural deficit, with little visibility of new, meaningful supply on the horizon in the short term.
With producers now generating FCF and demand trends constructive, one could argue that the new silver supply should be forthcoming. This is not the case for the silver industry, which has been underfunded for decades and hence lacks the development pipeline necessary to fill the supply-demand gap. The supply response in silver is further complicated by the structure of the industry – as silver remains largely a by-product rather than a primary revenue driver for most assets, which further complicates the investment decision. Permitting timelines remain a key unknown. In the context of the deficit physical market we remain convinced that silver will need to remain at higher prices for longer in order to incentivize a supply response. This creates significant opportunities for investors.
The Fund remains balanced between owning quality silver producers and investing in a new generation of silver developers and explorers, which will ultimately need to be advanced to close the structural supply shortfall.
Nawojka, Henry, Eric
Ninepoint Partners