January 27, 2026
DIY Playbook
Welcome to our first issue!
The next decade of investing will be shaped by a major shift: we’re moving from a world defined by abundance to one increasingly defined by real-world constraints.
For most of the period since the Great Financial Crisis, markets have been powered by ultra-low interest rates, cheap money, globalization, and the rapid growth of technology. Growth was the story – bigger, faster, farther. But that environment is changing. Higher rates, shifting and more expensive supply chains, demographic slowdowns, and the massive capital investments required to build and supply AI and energy infrastructure are creating a landscape where scarcity drives value.
What does that mean for you as a modern, hands-on investor? It means the companies that win will be the ones with real pricing power, access to scarce resources, growing cashflows, and business models built on fundamentals rather than hype. Instead of focusing on who can deploy capital the fastest, the more relevant question becomes: who can consistently earn highly attractive returns on capital over time?
Valuations are unlikely to balloon the way they did over the past decade, so total return will increasingly come from those fundamentals – cashflow, dividends, and the ability to navigate structural bottlenecks.
This isn’t bad news. It’s a new paradigm. Investors who understand how scarcity reshapes opportunity can build portfolios that are more resilient, more predictable, and better aligned with how the real economy actually works going forward.
For DIY investors, this decade belongs to those who stay curious, stay disciplined, and look beyond headlines to the engines of real return.
John Wilson
Co-CEO, Managing Partner
