June 30, 2026
Commentary
Monthly Update
Year-to-date to June 30, the Ninepoint Global Infrastructure Fund generated a total return of 21.28% compared to the MSCI World Core Infrastructure Index, which generated a total return of 12.82%.
NINEPOINT GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE FUND - COMPOUNDED RETURNS¹ AS OF JUNE 30, 2026 (SERIES F NPP356) | INCEPTION DATE: SEPTEMBER 1, 2011
1M |
YTD |
3M |
6M |
1YR |
3YR |
5YR |
10YR |
Inception |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fund |
4.63% |
21.28% |
6.83% |
21.28% |
19.28% |
17.40% |
11.71% |
10.37% |
9.06% |
MSCI World Core Infrastructure NR (CAD) |
2.18% |
12.82% |
2.77% |
12.82% |
15.74% |
14.13% |
9.53% |
8.87% |
11.23% |
The second quarter of 2026 unfolded in three distinct phases, each shaped by the evolving geopolitical and macro backdrop that defined the first half of the year. In April, markets rallied nearly 15% from their March lows as investor confidence grew that the Middle East conflict was unlikely to deteriorate further. The Q1 earnings season reinforced that underlying corporate fundamentals remained more resilient than the market had anticipated, and leadership rotated away from defensives and back toward growth. Energy prices remained elevated, keeping inflation expectations above central bank targets, but the worst-case stagflation scenario appeared to be off the table.
The recovery extended into May, although with narrowing leadership. Investor attention shifted back to AI-driven capital spending and durable earnings growth among a small group of companies. Oil prices pulled back modestly from their highs, moving below US$100 per barrel, but remained well above pre-conflict levels. Fixed income markets continued to price a higher-for-longer rate environment, while gold traded in a relatively rangebound fashion as markets weighed slowing growth against persistent inflation risk.
June, however, brought another nuanced phase for investors to cope with. A stronger-than-expected May jobs report in the United States effectively closed the door on near-term rate cuts and prompted a swift repricing toward a more hawkish Federal Reserve under new leadership. Simultaneously, progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz allowed oil prices to retreat sharply. Notably, growth stocks, value stocks, energy equities and utilities moved independently based on both macroeconomic and stock-specific factors, which created opportunities for investors.
Despite all the volatility and resulting rotations this year, revenue and earnings growth remain the fundamental drivers of equity performance.
According to FactSet, for Q2 2026, revenue is expected to grow 12.2% and earnings are expected to grow 23.3%, which are exceptional growth rates relative to historic figures. For the full calendar year, analysts are projecting revenue growth of 10.8% and earnings growth of 24.1%. Given these growth metrics, it is perhaps unsurprising that the forward S&P 500 P/E ratio is 20.4x, compared to the 10-year average of 19.0x and the 5-year average of 19.9x. But if we consider valuation relative to growth, we believe that markets are not yet overly expensive, assuming the growth estimates hold up through the balance of the year.
Top contributors to the year-to-date performance of the Ninepoint Global Infrastructure Fund included the Utilities (+802 bps), Industrials (+802 bps) and Energy (+460 bps) sectors, while no sector detracted from performance on an absolute basis.
On a relative basis, positive return contributions were generated from the Industrials (+392 bps), Real Estate (+272 bps) and Utilities (+221 bps) sectors while no sector generated negative return contributions.
We are currently overweight the Energy sector, market weight the Utilities sector and underweight the Industrials and Real Estate sectors. Despite the concerning global geopolitical events and the ensuing oil price spike, the uncertainty regarding future monetary policy (given the new Federal Reserve Chairman) and the impending US midterm elections, the broad equity markets have been remarkedly resilient. Importantly, the key driver of the equity markets this year has been the solid reported earnings growth, admittedly led by the AI-trade but now broadening across sectors. We remain focused on high quality, dividend paying infrastructure equities that have demonstrated the ability to consistently generate revenue, cash flow and earnings growth through the business cycle.
We continue to believe that the infrastructure asset class is well positioned to benefit from the ongoing electrification of the global economy and the growing emphasis on sovereign control of critical infrastructure. In particular, renewed investment in infrastructure that supports a secure and reliable domestic energy supply is expected to drive attractive long-term opportunities. As a result, we are comfortable maintaining exposure across a range of infrastructure sub-sectors poised to benefit from these themes, including traditional energy assets (such as storage and pipelines), electrical utilities (with an emphasis on those using natural gas or nuclear feedstocks), and engineering & construction contractors.
The Ninepoint Global Infrastructure Fund was concentrated in 30 positions as at June 30, 2026, with the top 10 holdings accounting for approximately 37.1% of the fund. Over the prior fiscal year, 26 out of our 30 holdings have announced a dividend increase, with an average hike of 6.3% (median hike of 5.8%). Using a total infrastructure approach, we will continue to apply a disciplined investment process, balancing valuation, growth, and yield in an effort to generate solid risk-adjusted returns.
Jeffrey Sayer, CFA
Ninepoint Partners