Do Some DATs Have an Implied Takeover Premium? Plus, The Revenge of Seasonality!

By: Jake Moodie , Analyst, Digital Asset Group at Ninepoint Partners

CRYPTO STORMS WALL STREET: IPOS, ETFS, AND TETHER’S $500 BILLION VALUATION

In 2025, one of the biggest trends has been crypto breaking into traditional public markets in a big way. If there’s one month that captures this shift, it’s this month, and especially this past week. Let’s break it down. First, the wave of crypto IPOs. Investor demand has been massive. This month alone we saw Gemini, the Winklevoss-led exchange, go public in a deal that was 20x oversubscribed, raising $425 million. Then came Figure, Mike Cagney’s blockchain-based lender, which pulled in $787.5 million in an upsized IPO. Both stocks jumped more than 25% on their first day, before cooling off. They follow other hot debuts this year like Circle and Bullish. And now, crypto custodian BitGo is next in line, having just filed with the SEC to go public, reporting $4.19 billion in revenue through H1 2025. Second, the SEC just approved generic listing standards for certain commodity-based ETFs (including those holding cryptoassets). That means exchanges can now list new qualifying crypto ETFs without waiting for a slow, case-by-case SEC review. It’s a huge step that should accelerate launches. With around 100 spot altcoin ETF filings already in the pipeline, we could see the next wave of approvals hit in the coming weeks and months. We’ve been saying more crypto ETFs would be a big year-end theme, and now it looks like they’re finally around the corner. Third, while not a public-market move, the news from Tether is just as big. The world’s largest stablecoin issuer, with its $180 billion USDT, is reportedly looking to raise $15–20 billion for about a 3% stake, valuing the company at roughly $500 billion. CEO Paolo Ardoino said the goal is to bring in a handful of high-profile investors to help scale Tether’s strategy even further. What a recent stretch it’s been.

U.S. REGULATORY CLIMATE APPEARS RIPE FOR TOKENS: POLYMARKET, COINBASE, AND METAMASK MAY BE TAKING NOTICE

In case the above commentary wasn’t enough, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins just unveiled that the agency is looking to roll out an “innovation exemption” for crypto firms by the end of the year. The idea is to let these companies launch products right away under lighter regulatory requirements, instead of having to follow the full securities rulebook on day one. If implemented, this would speed up new offerings and could be a major tailwind for U.S. crypto innovation. The timing here is wild. Just last week we talked about the massive re-rating in prediction market valuations. Polymarket, specifically, raised at a $1 billion valuation in June, and now, less than three months later, it’s reportedly gearing up to raise again, this time at a $10 billion valuation. Sure, some of that is thanks to getting the greenlight to relaunch in the U.S., but more importantly, it feels like the market is betting that the environment is finally right for tokens, particularly a Polymarket token. That idea has been floating around for years, but now it seems highly possible. If Polymarket does launch a token, one could only imagine the scale of the market’s appetite for it. And it doesn’t stop there. Just days later, news hit that Coinbase is exploring a token for its Ethereum layer-2 network Base, while Metamask announced it’s preparing to launch its own token imminently. Put all of this together, the SEC’s push for an innovation exemption, Polymarket’s explosive valuation jump, and these fresh token rumors, and it’s hard not to feel like something big is brewing. For a deeper dive, check out this week’s DeFi Decoded podcast where we break down what a Base token could mean for Coinbase and how the market may value it. Definitely something to keep an eye on.