Alt Thinking April 3, 2025
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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 3.27.2025
Investment Team
  • Eric Nuttall
    Partner, Senior Portfolio Manager
    Eric Nuttall
    Partner, Senior Portfolio Manager
    Eric Nuttall is a Partner and Senior Portfolio Manager with Ninepoint Partners LP. He joined the firm in August 2017. Prior to joining Ninepoint, Eric began his career with Sprott Asset Management LP as a Research Associate in February 2003. He progressed to roles as an Analyst, Associate Portfolio Manager, and ultimately Portfolio Manager in 2010.  Eric's views on energy are frequently sought after by BNN Bloomberg, CNBC, The Globe and Mail, The National Post, and other media organizati...
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  • Keegan Stoyles, CFA, P.Geo.
    Associate Portfolio Manager
    Keegan Stoyles, CFA, P.Geo.
    Associate Portfolio Manager
    Keegan joined Ninepoint Partners in January 2022 as an Analyst for the Ninepoint Energy Fund. Prior to Ninepoint, Keegan worked as an Equity Research Associate at TD Securities with a focus on the Energy sector, with coverage spanning Canada, the U.S and several European Supermajors. Prior to that he started his career at Encana (now Ovintiv) as a geologist and also spent several years at a private startup oil & gas company. He attended the University of Calgary and obtained a Bachel...
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Key Takeaways
  • New U.S. tariffs may cut GDP by 1–2% and reduce 2025 oil demand.
  • U.S. shale stuck in maintenance mode; peak output likely by 2027–28.
  • Narrow differentials and buybacks highlight value in Canadian energy.
  • Spare capacity shrinking fast, raising long-term supply risk.

April 3, 2025

In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies  dives into the fallout from “Liberation Day”, as the U.S. imposes surprisingly aggressive retaliatory tariffs — sparking uncertainty across global markets and potentially shaving 1–2% off U.S. GDP. In this high-stakes environment, Eric explores what it all means for oil demand, OPEC+ supply strategy, U.S. shale output, and Canadian energy equities.

Despite the market volatility, energy companies remain fundamentally strong—trading at ~12% free cash flow yields and executing aggressive share buybacks.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Tariff Fallout – U.S. tariffs trigger fears of a global growth slowdown, likely impacting oil demand forecasts for 2025.
  • Oil Demand Revised Down Slightly – Consensus was 1.0–1.2M bpd growth; likely lowered by ~100–200k bpd due to trade tensions.
  • Canadian Differentials at 4-Year Lows – Heavy oil trading at a $9.20 discount, helping buffer weak spot prices.
  • OPEC+ Accelerates Production Return – May will see a 3x ramp of planned supply return, but actual new barrels may be only ~200k bpd.
  • False Narrative Watch – Despite speculation, no solid evidence that White House influenced OPEC’s actions.
  • US Shale in the Death Zone – At ~$65 WTI, producers can only maintain production — no growth expected.
  • OPEC Spare Capacity Shrinking – Spare capacity of ~4M bpd likely to shrink to ~2M in 12–18 months, reducing future supply flexibility.
  • Peak Shale & Supply Risk – Growing belief that U.S. shale and non-OPEC supply will peak by 2027–2028, with no large-scale new capacity investments.
  • Natural Gas Outlook – LNG Canada ramping up; 4–5 USD/MMBtu is a reasonable trading range, supported by strong North American demand.
  • Energy Stocks Buying Back Shares Aggressively – One mid-cap oil sands producer bought back 2% of shares in March alone, a testament to undervaluation.
  • $70 Oil, $4 Gas Base Case Remains – Despite market noise, fundamentals still support strong free cash flow and shareholder returns.

With disciplined producers, low inventories, and strong fundamentals, the long-term energy outlook remains bullish—even in a volatile market.

Historical Commentary

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  • Commentary
    March 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric discusses the rapidly evolving geopolitical crisis impacting global energy markets following strikes involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.
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  • Commentary
    February 2026
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    In this special edition Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, shares real-time insights from the IEA–EIA–OPEC Symposium in Riyadh, where global energy leaders struck a markedly different tone than in years past.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    January 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric outlines why he believes global energy markets remain in the early stages of a multi-year bull market, with oil and natural gas standing out as the most compelling opportunities.
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  • Commentary
    January 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric shares key takeaways from meetings with Canadian oil and natural gas producers following the Peters & Co. Conference in Calgary. Against a backdrop of declining U.S. shale production, rising geopolitical uncertainty, and volatile weather-driven gas markets, Eric outlines why the long-term outlook for energy remains compelling — and where the best opportunities may lie today.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    January 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s Energy Market Update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, breaks down the sharp sell-off in Canadian oil equities following major geopolitical developments involving Venezuela and shifting U.S. energy policy under President Trump.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    December 2025
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    In this special year-end edition of the Energy Weekly Update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, reflects on one of the most volatile and geopolitically driven years in energy markets and outlines his outlook for oil and natural gas heading into 2026.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    December 2025
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric sits down with Dennis Degner, CEO of Range Resources, to break down why natural gas fundamentals are strengthening into the back half of the decade. With U.S. LNG exports surging toward 20 Bcf/d and data-center-driven power demand accelerating, the outlook for natural gas supply and pricing is rapidly tightening.
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  • Commentary
    November 2025
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    In this week’s edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of the Ninepoint Energy Strategy, breaks down a pivotal week for global energy markets — including the IEA’s surprising shift on long-term oil demand, Canada’s pipeline outlook, and the growing structural setup for the next major oil bull cycle.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    November 2025
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    In this week’s edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, breaks down a pivotal week for the energy sector — highlighted by a surge in natural gas prices, major M&A developments, and early signs of a policy shift from Ottawa.
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  • Commentary
    October 2025
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, breaks down a powerful rally in natural gas—up over 13% this week—as early weather forecasts signal one of the coldest winters in the past decade.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    October 2025
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, shares insights from the Energy Aspects conference in London, where oil CEOs, traders, policymakers, and investors gathered to debate the future of global energy markets.
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  • Commentary
    September 2025
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    In this week's update, Eric shares insights from the Peters & Gale Energy Conference and discusses why sentiment in the oil sector may be on the verge of a major shift.
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View All
All Funds
  • NPP008
    (Series F)
    Mutual Funds Exchange Traded Funds Sector Equity

    NAV

    $44.74 $0.18 (0.41%)
    As at 3/13/2026
    Growth of $10,000 Invested as at 2/27/2026
    Performance as at 2/27/2026
    1 Year
    44.68%
    3 Year
    15.10%
    5 Year
    33.71%
    10 Year
    15.43%
    Incept.1
    8.40%
    1 Inception Date 4/16/2004
    Go To Fund

    All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F shares; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at 2/27/2026. Where applicable, all figures are annualized and based on monthly returns since inception. Risk-free rate and minimum acceptable rate calculated using rolling 90-day CDN T-bill rate. The rate of return or mathematical table shown is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the mutual fund or returns on investment in the mutual fund. Top ten holdings, sector allocation and geographic allocation as at 2/27/2026. Top ten holdings based on % of net asset value. Sector allocation based on % of net asset value. Geographic allocation based on % of net asset value and excludes cash. Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Cash and cash equivalents include non-portfolio assets and/or liabilities.

    The rate of return is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the investment fund or returns on investment in the investment fund.

    In each taxation year, the Fund will distribute to its investors a sufficient amount of the Fund’s net income and net realized capital gains so that the Fund will not pay any income tax. The net income and the net realized capital gains of the Fund will be distributed annually in December.

    The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks: Active management risk; Concentration risk; Credit risk; Currency risk; Cybersecurity risk; Derivatives risk; Energy risk; Exchange traded funds risk; Foreign investment risk; Inflation risk; Interest rate risk; Liquidity risk; Market risk; Performance fee risk; Regulatory risk; Rule 144A and other exempted securities risk; Securities lending, repurchase and reverse repurchase transactions risk; Series risk; Short selling risk; Small capitalization natural resource company risk; Specific issuer risk; Tax risk; Absence of an active market for ETF Series risk; Halted trading of ETF Series risk; Trading price of ETF Series risk.

    Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to a number of funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), and other expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rates of return for series F units of the Funds for the period ended 2/27/2026 are based on the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to purchase securities of the Funds.

    The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not a resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.

    FundGrade A+® is used with permission from Fundata Canada Inc., all rights reserved. The annual FundGrade A+® Awards are presented by Fundata Canada Inc. to recognize the “best of the best” among Canadian investment funds. The FundGrade A+® calculation is supplemental to the monthly FundGrade ratings and is calculated at the end of each calendar year. The FundGrade rating system evaluates funds based on their risk-adjusted performance, measured by Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, and Information Ratio. The score for each ratio is calculated individually, covering all time periods from 2 to 10 years. The scores are then weighted equally in calculating a monthly FundGrade. The top 10% of funds earn an A Grade; the next 20% of funds earn a B Grade; the next 40% of funds earn a C Grade; the next 20% of funds receive a D Grade; and the lowest 10% of funds receive an E Grade. To be eligible, a fund must have received a FundGrade rating every month in the previous year. The FundGrade A+® uses a GPA-style calculation, where each monthly FundGrade from “A” to “E” receives a score from 4 to 0, respectively. A fund’s average score for the year determines its GPA. Any fund with a GPA of 3.5 or greater is awarded a FundGrade A+® Award. For more information, see www.FundGradeAwards.com. Although Fundata makes every effort to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data contained herein, the accuracy is not guaranteed by Fundata. CIFSC category: Energy Equity. Number of funds in the category: 20. FundGrade start date: 12/31/2015. FundGrade Calc date: 12/31/2025.

    Ninepoint Partners LP: Toll Free: 1.866.299.9906. Dealer Services: CIBC Mellon GSSC Record Keeping Services: Toll Free: 1.877.358.0540

     

  • NPP5502
    (Series F)
    Exchange Traded Funds Liquid Alternatives Sector Equity

    NAV

    $10.70 $0.03 (0.24%)
    As at 3/13/2026
    Growth of $10,000 Invested as at 2/27/2026
    Performance as at 2/27/2026
    1 Year
    29.72%
    3 Year
    11.23%
    5 Year
    -
    10 Year
    -
    Incept.1
    8.90%
    1 Inception Date 3/8/2022
    Go To Fund

    All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F shares; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at 2/27/2026. Where applicable, all figures are annualized and based on monthly returns since inception. Risk-free rate and minimum acceptable rate calculated using rolling 90-day CDN T-bill rate. The rate of return or mathematical table shown is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the mutual fund or returns on investment in the mutual fund. Top ten holdings, sector allocation and geographic allocation as at 2/27/2026. Top ten holdings based on % of net asset value. Sector allocation based on % of net asset value. Geographic allocation based on % of net asset value and excludes cash. Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Cash and cash equivalents include non-portfolio assets and/or liabilities.

    The rate of return is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the investment fund or returns on investment in the investment fund.

    The monthly distribution amount may be adjusted by the Manager without notice throughout the year as market conditions change. Monthly distributions will be comprised of net income, net realized capital gains and/or return of capital. Any net income and/or net realized capital gains earned by the Fund in excess of the monthly distribution will be distributed to unitholders annually in December.

    The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks: Active management risk; Borrowing risk; Capital depletion risk; Collateral risk; Commodity risk; Concentration risk; Currency risk; Cybersecurity risk; Derivatives risk; Energy risk; Exchanged traded funds risk; Foreign investment risk; Inflation risk; Interest rate risk; Leverage risk; Liquidity risk; Market risk; Performance fee risk; Regulatory risk; Rule 144A and other exempted securities risk; Securities lending, repurchase and reverse repurchase transactions risk; Series risk; Short selling risk; Small capitalization natural resource company risk; Specific issuer risk; Tax risk; Absence of an active market for ETF Series risk; Halted trading of ETF Series risk; Trading price of ETF Series risk.

    Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to a number of funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), and other expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rates of return for series F units of the Funds for the period ended 2/27/2026 are based on the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to purchase securities of the Funds.

    The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not a resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.

    Ninepoint Partners LP: Toll Free: 1.866.299.9906. Dealer Services: CIBC Mellon GSSC Record Keeping Services: Toll Free: 1.877.358.0540

    Disclaimer: This advertisement is for information purposes only and should not be relied upon as investment advice. We strongly recommend that you consult your investment professional for a comprehensive review of your personal financial situation before undertaking any investment strategy. Information herein is subject to change without notice and Ninepoint is not responsible for any inaccuracies or to update this information. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Funds may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction. 

    Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to the Ninepoint Funds (collectively, the ''Funds''). Important information about these Funds, including their investment objectives and strategies, purchase options, and applicable management fees, performance fees (if any), and expenses, is contained in their prospectus or offering memorandum. Please read these documents carefully before investing. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees, other charges and expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Investment funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.