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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 7.3.2025
Key Takeaways
  • US shale is in decline – Rig counts and prices suggest falling production.
  • OPEC+ spare capacity normalizing – Voluntary cuts end by September.
  • Oil demand remains strong – Up 700k–1.2M bpd despite macro risks.
  • Natural gas outlook bullish – LNG growth supports $4–$5 MCF pricing.

July 10, 2025

In this week’s update, Eric provides a mid-year update on the energy markets, reviewing the key drivers of volatility in oil and gas during the first half of 2025 and laying out his outlook for the remainder of the year.

From geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ policy shifts to weather-driven disappointments in natural gas, Eric breaks down the major forces shaping energy prices—and why he believes the medium- and long-term investment case remains stronger than ever.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Trump’s Tariff Volatility – Uncertainty around trade and demand hits sentiment, but oil demand remains resilient.
  • OPEC+ Deal Unwinding – Final voluntary barrels to return in September, officially normalizing spare capacity to ~2M bpd.
  • US Shale Plateau – With rig counts falling and productivity peaking, shale enters structural decline.
  • Natural Gas Outlook – AI and LNG demand remain strong, but weather impacts and high expectations led to a summer pullback.
  • Supply Crunch Ahead – Global underinvestment and steep decline rates suggest future supply tightness.
  • Demand Growth Continues – OPEC forecasts oil demand reaching 123M bpd by 2050, with natural gas supported by structural demand drivers.
  • Valuation Opportunity – Energy equities offer high free cash flow yields amid flat production and aggressive buybacks.

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