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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 5.8.2025
Key Takeaways
  • Shale Peak – Diamondback says U.S. oil production has likely peaked.
  • $60 = Trouble – WTI below $60 can't sustain shale output.
  • Inventory Shrinking – Quality wells are running out.
  • Canada Rising – Montney and Duvernay attract U.S. interest.

May 8, 2025

In this week’s edition, Eric delivers a decisive message on what could be the most consequential shift in oil markets in over a decade: the twilight of US shale.

Following Diamondback Energy’s striking Q1 commentary, Eric makes the case that US onshore oil production has likely peaked. With capital discipline, inventory exhaustion, and 42% annual decline rates overwhelming technology gains, the “drill baby drill” era appears officially over. The implications? Supply challenges, resurgent pricing power for OPEC+, and growing strategic value in Canadian long-life reserves.

Key Topics Covered:

  • US Shale Has Peaked – Diamondback, the top-tier Permian producer, declares US oil output is now in decline due to geology, economics, and shareholder pressure.
  • $60 WTI = Shale “Death Zone” – At sub-$60 prices, producers can’t drill enough to offset massive decline rates, accelerating the supply crunch.
  • Canada’s Strategic Edge – As US basins mature, Canada emerges as the last investable resource basin with high-quality, long-life inventory.
  • LNG Canada Catalyst – First exports expected in June could significantly narrow the nat gas discount, adding bullish momentum to Canadian gas.

Despite fears over demand softness, real-time data shows continued strength. With capital being slashed and production rolling over, the setup for a meaningful oil and gas recovery may already be in motion.

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