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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 7.3.2025
Key Takeaways
  • OPEC+ barrels returning – Real supply increases to hit markets this fall.
  • Shale decline risk – Sub-$60 oil threatens US shale growth.
  • Inventory surge – Global builds exceed seasonal norms.
  • Gas outlook bullish – LNG and AI demand drive upside.

July 3, 2025

In this week’s update, Eric unpacks a pivotal moment for the oil and gas markets. With global inventories rising faster than expected and OPEC+ accelerating the return of withheld barrels, Eric explains why a near-term oil price correction appears likely, and why US shale could play the critical balancing role in 2026. 

Key Topics Covered:

  • OPEC+ Set to End Voluntary Cuts – Real barrels returning as Saudi exports rise; potential surplus of 1.9M bbl/d by 2026.
  • US Shale at a Tipping Point – Dallas Fed survey signals production declines at sub-$60 oil, underscoring shale's diminished ability to respond.
  • Inventory Builds Accelerating – Global stocks up 192M barrels YTD, triple normal levels; builds expected to intensify into fall.
  • Geopolitical Premium Fading – Iran sanctions relief and stealth strikes dampen risk premium; market not fully pricing in impact.
  • Natural Gas Breakout – Bullish outlook driven by rising LNG exports, shrinking Canadian basis differentials, and AI-driven electricity demand.

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