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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 4.24.2025
Key Takeaways
  • Kazakhstan’s poor compliance could push OPEC+ to boost supply again at the May 5 meeting.
  • Low oil prices and capex cuts suggest U.S. shale production could shrink by up to 1M bpd.
  • OPEC’s spare capacity is normalizing, setting up a tighter oil market over time.
  • Natural gas prices are too low to sustain supply; LNG demand points to a coming rebound.

April 24, 2025

In this week's edition Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, provides insights into recent volatility in the oil markets ahead of the May 5th OPEC+ meeting. 

With conflicting signals from Kazakhstan, rising tensions within OPEC+, and ongoing uncertainty about global demand, Eric breaks down what these developments could mean for oil prices, US shale production, and opportunities in natural gas.

Key Topics Covered:

  • OPEC+ Risk Escalating – Accelerated barrel returns amid compliance concerns from Kazakhstan increase volatility.
  • US Shale at $60 "Death Zone" – Low-60s WTI halts growth; potential for substantial output decline if prices fall further.
  • Capex Cuts Deepening – Major service providers signal double-digit reductions, indicating further US shale contraction.
  •  Demand Still Robust – Real-time indicators show April demand stronger than consensus, despite market fears.
  • Spare Capacity Normalizing – OPEC’s spare capacity shrinking, setting up future supply tightness.
  • Financial Demand Collapse – Net speculative length near historic lows, creating conditions for potential price recovery.
  • Natural Gas Remains Bullish – Marginal supply cost at $5 per MCF; LNG demand continues supporting bullish outlook.
  • Market Rebalancing Act – Balancing oil and gas weighting to navigate near-term risks while capturing long-term upside.
  • Canadian Election Impact – Anticipating potential shifts in Canadian energy policy post-election.

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