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Ninepoint Fixed Income Outlook

Fixed Income Outlook - 8.2025
Key Takeaways
  • North American labor markets are weakening, with job growth stalling in the U.S. and unemployment hitting cycle highs in both countries.
  • Rate cut cycles are restarting, with the U.S. offering more upside for bond investors than Canada.
  • Credit spreads remain near record tights, leaving limited upside and greater downside risk as the economy deteriorates.
  • Our positioning is defensive, with credit hedges and increased U.S. rate exposure to navigate late-cycle volatility.

August 2025

In this month's update, Etienne Bordeleau-Lebrecque, Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, previews key insights from our latest fixed income commentary, focusing on the rapid deterioration in North American labour markets, the outlook for central bank rate cuts, and how we are positioning across our fixed income portfolios.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Labour Market Deterioration – U.S. job growth has stalled, Canada already near GFC-level weakness.
  • Central Bank Policy Shift – Rate cuts expected in both Canada and the U.S., with more upside in U.S. rates.
  • Credit Spreads at Extremes – Near record-tight levels across markets, limited upside ahead.
  • Defensive Portfolio Positioning – Increased hedges and conservative credit exposure to navigate volatility.

 

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