December 31, 2025
Commentary
The Ninepoint Gold Bullion Fund returned +10.1% (Series F CAD) in Q4 2025 annual performance to +55.7% (Series F CAD) versus Spot Gold CAD returning +10.4% in Q4 and +57.2% year-to-date.
NINEPOINT GOLD BULLION FUND - COMPOUNDED RETURNS¹ (%) AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2025 (SERIES F NPP226) | INCEPTION DATE: MARCH 18, 2009
1M |
YTD |
3M |
6M |
1YR |
3YR |
5YR |
10YR |
15YR |
INCEPTION |
|
FUND |
0.00% |
55.65% |
10.09% |
31.15% |
55.65% |
32.73% |
18.59% |
13.94% |
9.04% |
9.33% |
INDEX |
0.09% |
57.15% |
10.39% |
31.80% |
57.15% |
33.89% |
19.66% |
14.96% |
10.01% |
10.17% |
Gold delivered an exceptional performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, extending an already historic year and reaffirming its role as a strategic hedge against macroeconomic instability, geopolitical fragmentation, and policy uncertainty. Prices rose approximately 15% over the quarter, ending December at $4,332 per ounce after setting multiple all-time highs, including a late-December peak near $4,550 per ounce. For the full year, gold advanced over 55%, marking its strongest annual performance in more than four decades.
The rally was underpinned by a rare alignment of supportive forces: easing monetary policy, persistent geopolitical risk, accelerating central-bank demand, and a decisive return of private capital via gold-backed ETFs. Importantly, gold’s behavior in Q4 suggested a structural shift in how the metal is valued—less as a short-term inflation hedge and more as a long-duration store of value in a fragmented global order.
Q4 2025 Market Performance: Volatility with a Clear Uptrend
Gold entered Q4 2025 trading near $3,886 per ounce and quickly demonstrated resilience amid heightened volatility. Early October saw a brief pullback, yet buying interest remained strong, and prices rebounded swiftly. The metal reached an early record high of $4,379 per ounce on October 17, reflecting intensifying macro and geopolitical stress.
The quarter was characterized by sharp rallies followed by orderly consolidations, rather than sustained drawdowns—an important signal of institutional sponsorship. Despite intermittent profit-taking; each dip was met with renewed demand from both official and private investors.
Momentum accelerated into December, with gold surpassing the psychologically significant $4,500 level and peaking near $4,550 per ounce before modest year-end profit-taking. It closed the year just above $4,330, maintaining nearly all the late-quarter gains.
Macro and Geopolitical Drivers
Trade Conflict and Political Risk
One of the key catalysts during Q4 was the re-escalation of U.S.–China trade tensions. U.S. efforts to broaden restrictions on semiconductor equipment exports, combined with China’s retaliatory rare-earth export curbs, revived concerns over global supply chains. Threats of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports intensified risk aversion and drove safe-haven flows into gold.
Compounding this uncertainty was the 43-day U.S. government shutdown from October 1 to November 13, the longest in history. The shutdown halted the release of critical economic data and heightened concerns around fiscal governance, deficit financing, and political dysfunction. In the absence of reliable data, investors increasingly turned to gold as a hedge against institutional paralysis.
Monetary Policy Tailwinds
Monetary policy played a pivotal role. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in September and again in October, signaling a shift away from inflation containment toward labor-market support. This pivot compressed real yields and weakened the U.S. dollar, both of which are historically powerful tailwinds for gold.
By December, market expectations coalesced around additional easing in 2026, reinforcing gold’s appeal even as nominal rates remained elevated by historical standards. Notably, gold’s strength persisted despite occasional bouts of dollar firmness, underscoring a decoupling from traditional opportunity-cost dynamics.
Central Bank Demand: A Structural Pillar
Central banks were among the most influential participants in Q4 2025. Net purchases for the quarter are estimated at approximately 170 tonnes, contributing to a full-year total of roughly 750–900 tonnes. This marked the fourth consecutive year of official-sector demand exceeding 1,000 tonnes which equates to approximately 20% of global production.
According to the World Gold Council, central banks accounted for nearly 25% of global gold demand in 2025, up from pre-2022 averages of 10–15%. Emerging markets represented more than 70% of net purchases, reflecting a strategic pivot toward reserve diversification and reduced reliance on dollar-denominated assets.
Key Central Bank Buyers in 2025
- Poland led reported purchases, adding approximately 83 tonnes* year-to-date and increasing gold’s share of reserves toward a 30% target.
- Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan maintained consistent accumulation programs.
- The People’s Bank of China resumed steady monthly additions late in the year.
- Other notable buyers included Brazil, India, Azerbaijan, Czechia, and Ghana.
Central-bank buying intensified during periods of heightened policy uncertainty, providing a durable price floor and amplifying upside momentum. Survey data from the World Gold Council indicate intentions to further increase gold holdings in 2026.
Gold ETF Flows: Private Capital Returns
After several years of subdued interest, gold-backed ETFs staged a historic comeback in 2025, reinforcing the rally initiated by central banks.
2025 ETF Highlights
- Total inflows were approximately US$72–80 billion*, the highest on record.
- Holdings increased roughly 679 tonnes*.
- Assets under management exceeded US$530 billion by November.
Q3 2025 experienced the strongest quarterly inflow ever. The positive inflows then continued through the end of November. North America led early in the year, while Asia emerged as a dominant buyer in the second half, particularly amid equity-market weakness.
Major vehicles such as SPDR Gold Shares recorded unprecedented inflows, tightening physical supply and embedding a structural premium into the gold market.
Market Dynamics and Behavioral Shifts
One of the most notable developments in Q4 2025 was gold’s ability to maintain positive momentum during periods of equity market strength and brief dollar rebounds. This behavior suggests a re-rating of gold’s role from a tactical inflation hedge to a strategic allocation, tied to long-term macro risks.
Gold also increasingly traded in line with measures of economic policy uncertainty rather than traditional real-yield models. This shift reflects investor recognition that fiscal sustainability, geopolitical stability, and institutional credibility are becoming central drivers of asset allocation.
2026 Outlook
Our outlook for gold in 2026 remains bullish. Following a record-breaking 2025, the pace of growth may moderate compared to the previous year's surge, the structural drivers remain firmly in place. These include persistent central bank diversification away from the U.S. dollar, continued geopolitical instability (particularly surrounding U.S. trade policies and increasing regional conflicts exemplified by American military actions in Venezuela) and a favorable interest rate environment as the Federal Reserve continues its easing cycle.
Macroeconomic tailwinds are expected to be the primary catalyst for this upward trajectory. Projections indicate a "lower for longer" trend in real interest rates, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Furthermore, mounting concerns over global sovereign debt and fiscal deficits are driving institutional and retail investors toward gold as a "debasement hedge."
A stronger-than-expected economic recovery or a hawkish shift in monetary policy could trigger tactical pullbacks. At which point we believe that gold will serve as a cornerstone for portfolio diversification and a primary hedge against volatility throughout 2026.
Conclusion
Q4 2025 marked a defining chapter in gold’s modern history. The metal not only delivered exceptional returns but also demonstrated resilience across a wide range of macro conditions. Central-bank accumulation, resurgent ETF demand, and persistent geopolitical risk have collectively reshaped gold’s market structure.
As the global economy enters 2026 facing elevated debt levels, political polarization, and an increasingly multipolar monetary system, gold’s role as a strategic portfolio anchor appears stronger than at any point in recent decades. While near-term corrections may occur, the multi-year bull market remains intact, rewarding disciplined and forward-looking allocations to this timeless diversifier.
Sincerely,
Ninepoint Partners
*World Gold Council
All figures in USD unless stated otherwise.