March 31, 2026
Commentary
The Ninepoint Gold and Precious Minerals Fund experienced a volatile first quarter of 2026 due to significant gold price swings against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and changing interest rate expectations. On a quarter-to-date basis as of March 31, 2026, the Fund generated a total return of -0.42%, compared to the benchmark’s return of 11.25%.
NINEPOINT GOLD & PRECIOUS MINERALS FUND - COMPOUNDED RETURNS¹ (%) AS OF MARCH 31, 2026 (SERIES F NPP300) | INCEPTION DATE: OCTOBER 13, 2004
1M |
YTD |
3M |
6M |
1YR |
3YR |
5YR |
10YR |
15YR |
INCEPTION |
|
FUND |
-19.25% |
-0.42% |
-0.42% |
19.10% |
83.34% |
45.03% |
23.87% |
17.88% |
4.45% |
8.10% |
100% S&P/TSX GLOBAL GOLD TOTAL RETURN INDEX |
-17.61% |
11.25% |
11.25% |
24.45% |
100.58% |
45.88% |
28.56% |
19.17% |
7.16% |
8.26% |
The quarter began with a strong rally, and gold peaked at US$5,417/oz in late January. This move was fueled by a combination of heightened geopolitical tensions, the impact of the US government shutdown, and continuing investment demand. The positive price momentum stalled in late January following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, which the market interpreted as potentially a more hawkish Fed stance, with potentially fewer rate cuts. The gold price recovered somewhat and maintained a relatively tight trading range around the $5,000/oz for most of February.
On February 28th, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated, widespread military strike against Iran. This significant geopolitical event was initially shrugged off by the market, but by mid-March, it became clear that the conflict could have much wider geopolitical and economic consequences.
As the world watched the Strait of Hormuz grind to a halt and infrastructure destruction continue, the market quickly refocused on the economic implications of higher energy prices and their impact on the economy and monetary policy. The USD strengthened while expectations of rate cuts evaporated and the global equity market corrected, bringing the gold sector down with it. Gold bottomed at $4,376/oz in late March before rebounding as the conflict in Iran began to show some hope of resolution. At the time of writing, the situation in the Middle East remains fluid and contradictory statements continue. A two-week ceasefire now provides a backdrop for further negotiations, and the gold price, along with the general market, has rebounded in anticipation of a resolution. Our positive stance on gold remains unchanged, as central bank demand continues and Western investors remain underweight the asset class.
Meanwhile, the fundamentals for gold equities remain robust, and we view the current pullback as a key opportunity for those who believed they “missed the rally in 2025”. The reasons to own a safe-haven asset in this uncertain and ever-changing geopolitical and economic environment remain compelling.
With gold prices averaging above US$4,800/oz in Q1 (vs US$4,030/oz in Q4), gold producers continue to expand margins, and valuations remain attractive, with the sector trading at ~6x EBITDA and at discounts to their historical P/NAV trading average. With balance sheets strong and share buybacks continuing, we believe the sector is well-positioned for a fundamental re-rating.
In the Fund, our top contributors for the quarter included producers G Mining Ventures and Agnico Eagle. These high-quality operators are benefiting from elevated gold prices and expanded margins, providing robust returns amid market volatility.
Development-stage companies were under pressure this quarter and underperformed the producers, with Vizsla Silver and Snowline Gold the biggest performance detractors in the Fund.
Outlook & Investment Strategy
We see the current pullback as an entry point opportunity in a significant and multi-year gold bull cycle. The Fund remains focused on identifying quality companies that offer attractive risk-adjusted exposure, and we continue to increase our exposure to earlier stage names (i.e., developers and explorers), which tend to outperform in the latter stages of a gold cycle.
Nawojka Wachowiak, M.Sc., CIM
Ninepoint Partners