June 30, 2026
Commentary
Year-to-date to June 30, 2026, the Ninepoint Balanced+ Fund generated a total return of 9.82% compared to a 60/40 TSX Composite TR/XBB blended benchmark, which generated a total return of 7.63%.
NINEPOINT BALANCED+ FUND - COMPOUNDED RETURNS¹ AS OF JUNE 30, 2026 (SERIES F NPP1029) | INCEPTION DATE: MARCH 7, 2024
1M |
YTD |
3M |
6M |
1YR |
INCEPTION |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FUND |
-1.03% |
9.82% |
3.83% |
9.82% |
21.94% |
18.13% |
The second quarter of 2026 unfolded in three distinct phases, each shaped by the evolving geopolitical and macro backdrop that defined the first half of the year. In April, markets rallied nearly 15% from their March lows as investor confidence grew that the Middle East conflict was unlikely to deteriorate further. The Q1 earnings season reinforced that underlying corporate fundamentals remained more resilient than the market had anticipated, and leadership rotated away from defensives and back toward growth. Energy prices remained elevated, keeping inflation expectations above central bank targets, but the worst-case stagflation scenario appeared to be off the table.
The recovery extended into May, although with narrowing leadership. Investor attention shifted back to AI-driven capital spending and durable earnings growth among a small group of companies. Oil prices pulled back modestly from their highs, moving below US$100 per barrel, but remained well above pre-conflict levels. Fixed income markets continued to price a higher-for-longer rate environment, while gold traded in a relatively rangebound fashion as markets weighed slowing growth against persistent inflation risk. The portfolio benefited from a broadly constructive backdrop, with the Global Select Fund capturing prominent global equity themes and the real asset allocations continuing to contribute positively on a year-to-date basis.
June, however, brought another nuanced phase for investors to cope with. A stronger-than-expected May jobs report in the United States effectively closed the door on near-term rate cuts and prompted a swift repricing toward a more hawkish Federal Reserve under new leadership. Simultaneously, progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz allowed oil prices to retreat sharply. The inflation risk premium that had supported the energy and gold barbell through much of the year began to unwind. Both sold off concurrently, with energy equities falling along with oil prices and gold (both the bullion and equities) declining on a stronger dollar and rising real rates, which forced the portfolio to absorb pressure from both sides of the trade at once. Despite this, the Ninepoint Balanced+ Fund finished the first half of 2026 in positive territory, with the real asset exposure that challenged performance in June having been central to the portfolio's resilience through the more volatile and inflationary backdrop earlier in the year.
Top contributors to the year-to-date performance of the Ninepoint Balanced+ Fund included the Ninepoint Energy Fund, the Ninepoint Global Infrastructure Fund, and the Ninepoint Global Select Fund. Within our direct equity holdings, Suncor Energy and the Canadian banks (specifically CIBC, TD, and Royal Bank of Canada) were among the more meaningful positive contributors. On the downside, the Ninepoint Gold and Precious Minerals Fund was the largest detractor over the period, as fading rate-cut expectations and a stronger dollar weighed on the sector through the second half of the quarter. Canadian dollar exposure and direct holdings in Meta Platforms and Microsoft also detracted from performance, the latter two facing headwinds from elevated capital expenditure commitments and valuation compression.
Our current target capital allocations, by underlying weights, are as described in the table below:
Target Capital Allocations
Over the course of the second quarter, our PRISM risk model guided several adjustments to portfolio positioning as the macro environment evolved. In May, as rate-cut expectations continued to fade and market leadership narrowed toward growth-oriented equities, we reduced the Ninepoint Gold and Precious Minerals Fund from 10% to 7.5% and increased the Ninepoint Global Select Fund to 15%, bringing it level with our Ninepoint Energy Fund allocation. These two positions have been working in tandem, with Energy anchoring the portfolio during inflationary and geopolitical episodes and Global Select capturing durable growth opportunities when conditions become more constructive.
As June unfolded and oil prices retreated with signs of Middle East de-escalation, we trimmed the Ninepoint Energy Fund from 15% to 12.5% and redeployed into the Ninepoint Global Infrastructure Fund, bringing the weight to 12.5%, thus modestly reducing direct commodity beta while retaining meaningful real asset exposure. Total equity exposure remains at 72.5%, above the 65% benchmark, with direct North American equity holdings at 20%. Total precious metals exposure, including direct bullion through the Ninepoint Gold Bullion Fund, is held near 10%, as we remain constructive on the structural setup for both gold and energy heading into the second half and into 2027. Fixed income remains below benchmark at 20% but is credit-focused with duration just below 2 years, while the liquid alternatives sleeve continues to assist in reducing volatility and income generation without private debt or equity exposure.
Looking back on the first half of the year, defined by geopolitical shocks, aggressive interest rate repricing, and rapid shifts in market leadership, a year-to-date return just shy of 10% reflects what a truly diversified, actively managed portfolio is designed to deliver, resilience when it matters most, and participation when conditions allow.
Jeff Sayer, CFA
Ninepoint Partners