Alt Thinking May 22, 2025
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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 5.22.2025
Investment Team
  • Eric Nuttall
    Partner, Senior Portfolio Manager
    Eric Nuttall
    Partner, Senior Portfolio Manager
    Eric Nuttall is a Partner and Senior Portfolio Manager with Ninepoint Partners LP. He joined the firm in August 2017. Prior to joining Ninepoint, Eric began his career with Sprott Asset Management LP as a Research Associate in February 2003. He progressed to roles as an Analyst, Associate Portfolio Manager, and ultimately Portfolio Manager in 2010.  Eric's views on energy are frequently sought after by BNN Bloomberg, CNBC, The Globe and Mail, The National Post, and other media organizati...
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  • Keegan Stoyles, CFA, P.Geo.
    Associate Portfolio Manager
    Keegan Stoyles, CFA, P.Geo.
    Associate Portfolio Manager
    Keegan joined Ninepoint Partners in January 2022 as an Analyst for the Ninepoint Energy Fund. Prior to Ninepoint, Keegan worked as an Equity Research Associate at TD Securities with a focus on the Energy sector, with coverage spanning Canada, the U.S and several European Supermajors. Prior to that he started his career at Encana (now Ovintiv) as a geologist and also spent several years at a private startup oil & gas company. He attended the University of Calgary and obtained a Bachel...
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Key Takeaways
  • Oil expected at $50–$60 as inventories rise and OPEC+ compliance falters.
  • U.S. shale is in structural decline, with production likely falling at current prices.
  • Oil exposure trimmed to ~24%, focused on a few high-conviction names.
  • Natural gas now bullish, driven by LNG demand and tight supply.
  • Gas is the future fuel, powering AI, data centers, and grid reliability.

May 22, 2025

In this week’s update, Eric outlines why he expects oil prices to languish in the $50–$60 range over the next 9 to 12 months, as global oil inventories climb, OPEC+ discipline breaks down, and U.S. shale enters structural decline.

In contrast, he makes a compelling case for a bullish natural gas thesis, supported by surging LNG demand, constrained supply growth, and strong free cash flow yields.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Bearish on Oil, Near-Term – Global inventories rising, OPEC+ compliance deteriorating, and demand growth moderating lead to a weaker medium-term oil outlook.
  • $50–$60 Oil Range Expected – With accelerated OPEC+ returns and sluggish demand, U.S. shale must decline to rebalance the market.
  • Twilight of U.S. Shale – Shale growth is done; $60 WTI marks the “death zone” where production declines are inevitable.
  • Oil Weighting Reduced – Fund oil exposure lowered to ~24%; remains selective with three strategic positions.
  • Natural Gas Bull Market – LNG exports surging in both the U.S. and Canada with major margin improvement expected for Canadian gas producers.
  • Structural Supply Tightness – U.S. shale decline and high-cost basins imply a $4–$5 per MCF gas price over the coming years.
  • Strong Equity Upside – Gas equities yielding 10–16% FCF at $4–$5 gas, with decades of low-decline inventory and strong buybacks.
  • Power Crisis on the Horizon – AI, data centers, and electrification drive massive power demand—natural gas is the only scalable short-term solution.
  • Oil’s Long-Term Bullish Outlook – Despite short-term caution, Eric remains bullish on Canadian oil sands and long-life reserves.
  • Flexible Positioning Ahead – Watchful on geopolitics and Saudi actions; poised to reallocate to oil when the time is right.

Historical Commentary

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  • Commentary
    November 2025
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of the Ninepoint Energy Strategy, breaks down a pivotal week for global energy markets — including the IEA’s surprising shift on long-term oil demand, Canada’s pipeline outlook, and the growing structural setup for the next major oil bull cycle.
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  • Commentary
    November 2025
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, breaks down a pivotal week for the energy sector — highlighted by a surge in natural gas prices, major M&A developments, and early signs of a policy shift from Ottawa.
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  • Commentary
    October 2025
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    In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, breaks down a powerful rally in natural gas—up over 13% this week—as early weather forecasts signal one of the coldest winters in the past decade.
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  • Commentary
    October 2025
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, shares insights from the Energy Aspects conference in London, where oil CEOs, traders, policymakers, and investors gathered to debate the future of global energy markets.
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  • Commentary
    September 2025
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    In this week's update, Eric shares insights from the Peters & Gale Energy Conference and discusses why sentiment in the oil sector may be on the verge of a major shift.
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  • Commentary
    September 2025
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's update, Eric returns from a summer break to dissect the growing debate between oil market bulls and bears. With OPEC+ compliance questions, surging non-OPEC supply, and Chinese stockpiling all driving volatility, Eric explains why short-term caution is warranted but why the medium-term outlook remains firmly bullish.
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  • Commentary
    July 2025
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, provides a mid-year update on the energy markets, reviewing the key drivers of volatility in oil and gas during the first half of 2025 and laying out his outlook for the remainder of the year.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    July 2025
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric unpacks a pivotal moment for the oil and gas markets. With global inventories rising faster than expected and OPEC+ accelerating the return of withheld barrels, Eric explains why a near-term oil price correction appears likely, and why US shale could play the critical balancing role in 2026.
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  • Commentary
    June 2025
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric returns from the RBC Energy Conference with significant updates on U.S. shale, OPEC+ policy shifts, and structural demand growth for natural gas.
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  • Commentary
    May 2025
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    In this week’s edition, Eric delivers a decisive message on what could be the most consequential shift in oil markets in over a decade: the twilight of US shale.
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  • Commentary
    May 2025
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s update, Eric Nuttall breaks down the implications of Canada’s federal election and looks ahead to a pivotal OPEC+ meeting that could reshape oil market dynamics.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    April 2025
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, provides insights into recent volatility in the oil markets ahead of the May 5th OPEC+ meeting. With conflicting signals from Kazakhstan, rising tensions within OPEC+, and ongoing uncertainty about global demand, Eric breaks down what these developments could mean for oil prices, US shale production, and opportunities in natural gas.
    Sector Investments
View All
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  • NPP008
    (Series F)
    Mutual Funds Exchange Traded Funds Sector Equity
    $35.51 -$0.20 (-0.56%)
    As at 11/13/2025
    Growth of $10,000 Invested as at 10/31/2025
    Performance as at 10/31/2025
    1 Year
    16.28%
    3 Year
    2.83%
    5 Year
    51.29%
    10 Year
    9.94%
    Incept.1
    7.42%
    1 Inception Date 4/16/2004
    Go To Fund

    All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F shares; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at 10/31/2025. Where applicable, all figures are annualized and based on monthly returns since inception. Risk-free rate and minimum acceptable rate calculated using rolling 90-day CDN T-bill rate. The rate of return or mathematical table shown is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the mutual fund or returns on investment in the mutual fund. Top ten holdings, sector allocation and geographic allocation as at 10/31/2025. Top ten holdings based on % of net asset value. Sector allocation based on % of net asset value. Geographic allocation based on % of net asset value and excludes cash. Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Cash and cash equivalents include non-portfolio assets and/or liabilities.

    The rate of return is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the investment fund or returns on investment in the investment fund.

    In each taxation year, the Fund will distribute to its investors a sufficient amount of the Fund’s net income and net realized capital gains so that the Fund will not pay any income tax. The net income and the net realized capital gains of the Fund will be distributed annually in December.

    The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks: Active management risk; Concentration risk; Credit risk; Currency risk; Cybersecurity risk; Derivatives risk; Energy risk; Exchange traded funds risk; Foreign investment risk; Inflation risk; Interest rate risk; Liquidity risk; Market risk; Performance fee risk; Regulatory risk; Rule 144A and other exempted securities risk; Securities lending, repurchase and reverse repurchase transactions risk; Series risk; Short selling risk; Small capitalization natural resource company risk; Specific issuer risk; Tax risk; Absence of an active market for ETF Series risk; Halted trading of ETF Series risk; Trading price of ETF Series risk.

    Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to a number of funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), and other expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rates of return for series F units of the Funds for the period ended 10/31/2025 are based on the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to purchase securities of the Funds.

    The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not a resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.

    FundGrade A+® is used with permission from Fundata Canada Inc., all rights reserved. The annual FundGrade A+® Awards are presented by Fundata Canada Inc. to recognize the “best of the best” among Canadian investment funds. The FundGrade A+® calculation is supplemental to the monthly FundGrade ratings and is calculated at the end of each calendar year. The FundGrade rating system evaluates funds based on their risk-adjusted performance, measured by Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, and Information Ratio. The score for each ratio is calculated individually, covering all time periods from 2 to 10 years. The scores are then weighted equally in calculating a monthly FundGrade. The top 10% of funds earn an A Grade; the next 20% of funds earn a B Grade; the next 40% of funds earn a C Grade; the next 20% of funds receive a D Grade; and the lowest 10% of funds receive an E Grade. To be eligible, a fund must have received a FundGrade rating every month in the previous year. The FundGrade A+® uses a GPA-style calculation, where each monthly FundGrade from “A” to “E” receives a score from 4 to 0, respectively. A fund’s average score for the year determines its GPA. Any fund with a GPA of 3.5 or greater is awarded a FundGrade A+® Award. For more information, see www.FundGradeAwards.com. Although Fundata makes every effort to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data contained herein, the accuracy is not guaranteed by Fundata. CIFSC category: Energy Equity. Number of funds in the category: 18. FundGrade start date: 12/31/2014. FundGrade Calc date: 12/31/2024.

    Ninepoint Partners LP: Toll Free: 1.866.299.9906. Dealer Services: CIBC Mellon GSSC Record Keeping Services: Toll Free: 1.877.358.0540

     

  • NPP5502
    (Series F)
    Exchange Traded Funds Liquid Alternatives Sector Equity
    $9.01 -$0.10 (-1.10%)
    As at 11/13/2025
    Growth of $10,000 Invested as at 10/31/2025
    Performance as at 10/31/2025
    1 Year
    3.12%
    3 Year
    -0.33%
    5 Year
    -
    10 Year
    -
    Incept.1
    3.87%
    1 Inception Date 3/8/2022
    Go To Fund

    All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F shares; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at 10/31/2025. Where applicable, all figures are annualized and based on monthly returns since inception. Risk-free rate and minimum acceptable rate calculated using rolling 90-day CDN T-bill rate. The rate of return or mathematical table shown is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the mutual fund or returns on investment in the mutual fund. Top ten holdings, sector allocation and geographic allocation as at 10/31/2025. Top ten holdings based on % of net asset value. Sector allocation based on % of net asset value. Geographic allocation based on % of net asset value and excludes cash. Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Cash and cash equivalents include non-portfolio assets and/or liabilities.

    The rate of return is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the investment fund or returns on investment in the investment fund.

    The monthly distribution amount may be adjusted by the Manager without notice throughout the year as market conditions change. Monthly distributions will be comprised of net income, net realized capital gains and/or return of capital. Any net income and/or net realized capital gains earned by the Fund in excess of the monthly distribution will be distributed to unitholders annually in December.

    The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks: Active management risk; Borrowing risk; Capital depletion risk; Collateral risk; Commodity risk; Concentration risk; Currency risk; Cybersecurity risk; Derivatives risk; Energy risk; Exchanged traded funds risk; Foreign investment risk; Inflation risk; Interest rate risk; Leverage risk; Liquidity risk; Market risk; Performance fee risk; Regulatory risk; Rule 144A and other exempted securities risk; Securities lending, repurchase and reverse repurchase transactions risk; Series risk; Short selling risk; Small capitalization natural resource company risk; Specific issuer risk; Tax risk; Absence of an active market for ETF Series risk; Halted trading of ETF Series risk; Trading price of ETF Series risk.

    Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to a number of funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), and other expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rates of return for series F units of the Funds for the period ended 10/31/2025 are based on the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to purchase securities of the Funds.

    The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not a resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.

    Ninepoint Partners LP: Toll Free: 1.866.299.9906. Dealer Services: CIBC Mellon GSSC Record Keeping Services: Toll Free: 1.877.358.0540

    Disclaimer: This advertisement is for information purposes only and should not be relied upon as investment advice. We strongly recommend that you consult your investment professional for a comprehensive review of your personal financial situation before undertaking any investment strategy. Information herein is subject to change without notice and Ninepoint is not responsible for any inaccuracies or to update this information. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Funds may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction. 

    Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to the Ninepoint Funds (collectively, the ''Funds''). Important information about these Funds, including their investment objectives and strategies, purchase options, and applicable management fees, performance fees (if any), and expenses, is contained in their prospectus or offering memorandum. Please read these documents carefully before investing. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees, other charges and expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Investment funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.