Alt Thinking May 22, 2025
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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 5.22.2025
Investment Team
  • Eric Nuttall
    Partner, Senior Portfolio Manager
    Eric Nuttall
    Partner, Senior Portfolio Manager
    Eric Nuttall is a Partner and Senior Portfolio Manager with Ninepoint Partners LP. He joined the firm in August 2017. Prior to joining Ninepoint, Eric began his career with Sprott Asset Management LP as a Research Associate in February 2003. He progressed to roles as an Analyst, Associate Portfolio Manager, and ultimately Portfolio Manager in 2010.  Eric's views on energy are frequently sought after by BNN Bloomberg, CNBC, The Globe and Mail, The National Post, and other media organizati...
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  • Keegan Stoyles, CFA, P.Geo.
    Associate Portfolio Manager
    Keegan Stoyles, CFA, P.Geo.
    Associate Portfolio Manager
    Keegan joined Ninepoint Partners in January 2022 as an Analyst for the Ninepoint Energy Fund. Prior to Ninepoint, Keegan worked as an Equity Research Associate at TD Securities with a focus on the Energy sector, with coverage spanning Canada, the U.S and several European Supermajors. Prior to that he started his career at Encana (now Ovintiv) as a geologist and also spent several years at a private startup oil & gas company. He attended the University of Calgary and obtained a Bachel...
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Key Takeaways
  • Oil expected at $50–$60 as inventories rise and OPEC+ compliance falters.
  • U.S. shale is in structural decline, with production likely falling at current prices.
  • Oil exposure trimmed to ~24%, focused on a few high-conviction names.
  • Natural gas now bullish, driven by LNG demand and tight supply.
  • Gas is the future fuel, powering AI, data centers, and grid reliability.

May 22, 2025

In this week’s update, Eric outlines why he expects oil prices to languish in the $50–$60 range over the next 9 to 12 months, as global oil inventories climb, OPEC+ discipline breaks down, and U.S. shale enters structural decline.

In contrast, he makes a compelling case for a bullish natural gas thesis, supported by surging LNG demand, constrained supply growth, and strong free cash flow yields.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Bearish on Oil, Near-Term – Global inventories rising, OPEC+ compliance deteriorating, and demand growth moderating lead to a weaker medium-term oil outlook.
  • $50–$60 Oil Range Expected – With accelerated OPEC+ returns and sluggish demand, U.S. shale must decline to rebalance the market.
  • Twilight of U.S. Shale – Shale growth is done; $60 WTI marks the “death zone” where production declines are inevitable.
  • Oil Weighting Reduced – Fund oil exposure lowered to ~24%; remains selective with three strategic positions.
  • Natural Gas Bull Market – LNG exports surging in both the U.S. and Canada with major margin improvement expected for Canadian gas producers.
  • Structural Supply Tightness – U.S. shale decline and high-cost basins imply a $4–$5 per MCF gas price over the coming years.
  • Strong Equity Upside – Gas equities yielding 10–16% FCF at $4–$5 gas, with decades of low-decline inventory and strong buybacks.
  • Power Crisis on the Horizon – AI, data centers, and electrification drive massive power demand—natural gas is the only scalable short-term solution.
  • Oil’s Long-Term Bullish Outlook – Despite short-term caution, Eric remains bullish on Canadian oil sands and long-life reserves.
  • Flexible Positioning Ahead – Watchful on geopolitics and Saudi actions; poised to reallocate to oil when the time is right.

Historical Commentary

View All
  • Commentary
    August 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, returns to address the critical question: how does this end? With global oil inventories near record lows after absorbing 300 million barrels from strategic reserves, Middle Eastern production down 8 million barrels per day, and China beginning to return to the market, Eric explains why the oil market remains far more precarious than most understand.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    July 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, explains that despite the insane volatility of the past week, the critical signal remains the US SPR now sitting at 307 million barrels near the 300 million barrel floor. Eric discusses the geopolitical noise masking the real story - inbound vessel counts to the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's decision to control the strait rather than pursue nuclear weapons, direct Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure including Abqaiq, and why only two vessels were inbound last night versus the 40 to 45 needed to restore Middle Eastern production.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    July 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition, Eric explains that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted following renewed strikes, with inbound vessel counts now the key data point for Middle Eastern supply. Eric discusses shrinking global safety buffers — the US SPR at 319 million barrels, onshore inventories near record lows — record refined product crack spreads, signs of a Chinese import inflection, and the wave of optimism coming out of Stampede as Ottawa backstops a proposed one-million-barrel-per-day pipeline.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    July 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition, Eric returns with a detailed update on why oil is now trading below pre-war levels despite historically low inventories and what he believes comes next.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    June 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition, Eric shares his observations following the recent oil selloff and explains why he believes the market remains too complacent about the supply situation.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    June 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition, Eric explains why he believes global oil markets are now facing a critical shortage and why the timeline has shifted from months to weeks.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    May 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric shares key takeaways from recent meetings in Houston and explains why he believes global oil markets may be approaching a critical tipping point.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    May 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition, Eric discusses the extreme volatility in oil markets as headlines around a potential Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding continue to pressure crude prices.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    April 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric examines the ongoing oil market disruption tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and why he believes the market still has not fully priced in the scale of the global supply shock.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    April 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric breaks down why the current global energy crisis may be far more severe and longer lasting than markets appear to expect.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    April 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric discusses the worsening global energy crisis and why the oil market may still be underestimating the scale and duration of the current supply shock.
    Sector Investments
  • Commentary
    March 2026
    Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric discusses the escalating energy crisis impacting global oil, LNG, and refined product markets following major disruptions in Iran, Qatar, and key Middle East export routes.
    Sector Investments
View All
All Funds
  • NPP008
    (Series F)
    Mutual Funds Exchange Traded Funds Sector Equity
    Performance as at 7/31/2026
    1 Year
    61.57%
    3 Year
    22.07%
    5 Year
    32.20%
    10 Year
    13.60%
    Incept.1
    9.28%
    1 Inception Date 4/16/2004

    NAV

    $53.05 -$0.51 (-0.96%)
    As at 8/24/2026
    Growth of $10,000 Invested as at 7/31/2026
    Go To Fund

    All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F shares; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at 7/31/2026. Where applicable, all figures are annualized and based on monthly returns since inception. Risk-free rate and minimum acceptable rate calculated using rolling 90-day CDN T-bill rate. The rate of return or mathematical table shown is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the mutual fund or returns on investment in the mutual fund. Top ten holdings, sector allocation and geographic allocation as at 7/31/2026. Top ten holdings based on % of net asset value. Sector allocation based on % of net asset value. Geographic allocation based on % of net asset value and excludes cash. Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Cash and cash equivalents include non-portfolio assets and/or liabilities.

    The rate of return is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the investment fund or returns on investment in the investment fund.

    In each taxation year, the Fund will distribute to its investors a sufficient amount of the Fund’s net income and net realized capital gains so that the Fund will not pay any income tax. The net income and the net realized capital gains of the Fund will be distributed annually in December.

    The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks: Active management risk; Concentration risk; Credit risk; Currency risk; Cybersecurity risk; Derivatives risk; Energy risk; Exchange traded funds risk; Foreign investment risk; Inflation risk; Interest rate risk; Liquidity risk; Market risk; Performance fee risk; Regulatory risk; Rule 144A and other exempted securities risk; Securities lending, repurchase and reverse repurchase transactions risk; Series risk; Short selling risk; Small capitalization natural resource company risk; Specific issuer risk; Tax risk; Absence of an active market for ETF Series risk; Halted trading of ETF Series risk; Trading price of ETF Series risk.

    Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to a number of funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), and other expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rates of return for series F units of the Funds for the period ended 7/31/2026 are based on the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to purchase securities of the Funds.

    The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not a resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.

    FundGrade A+® is used with permission from Fundata Canada Inc., all rights reserved. The annual FundGrade A+® Awards are presented by Fundata Canada Inc. to recognize the “best of the best” among Canadian investment funds. The FundGrade A+® calculation is supplemental to the monthly FundGrade ratings and is calculated at the end of each calendar year. The FundGrade rating system evaluates funds based on their risk-adjusted performance, measured by Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, and Information Ratio. The score for each ratio is calculated individually, covering all time periods from 2 to 10 years. The scores are then weighted equally in calculating a monthly FundGrade. The top 10% of funds earn an A Grade; the next 20% of funds earn a B Grade; the next 40% of funds earn a C Grade; the next 20% of funds receive a D Grade; and the lowest 10% of funds receive an E Grade. To be eligible, a fund must have received a FundGrade rating every month in the previous year. The FundGrade A+® uses a GPA-style calculation, where each monthly FundGrade from “A” to “E” receives a score from 4 to 0, respectively. A fund’s average score for the year determines its GPA. Any fund with a GPA of 3.5 or greater is awarded a FundGrade A+® Award. For more information, see www.FundGradeAwards.com. Although Fundata makes every effort to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data contained herein, the accuracy is not guaranteed by Fundata. CIFSC category: Energy Equity. Number of funds in the category: 20. FundGrade start date: 12/31/2015. FundGrade Calc date: 12/31/2025.

    Ninepoint Partners LP: Toll Free: 1.866.299.9906. Dealer Services: CIBC Mellon GSSC Record Keeping Services: Toll Free: 1.877.358.0540

     

  • NPP5502
    (Series F)
    Exchange Traded Funds Liquid Alternatives Sector Equity
    Performance as at 7/31/2026
    1 Year
    40.40%
    3 Year
    11.91%
    5 Year
    -
    10 Year
    -
    Incept.1
    10.99%
    1 Inception Date 3/8/2022

    NAV

    $11.43 -$0.01 (-0.06%)
    As at 8/24/2026
    Growth of $10,000 Invested as at 7/31/2026
    Go To Fund

    All returns and fund details are a) based on Series F shares; b) net of fees; c) annualized if period is greater than one year; d) as at 7/31/2026. Where applicable, all figures are annualized and based on monthly returns since inception. Risk-free rate and minimum acceptable rate calculated using rolling 90-day CDN T-bill rate. The rate of return or mathematical table shown is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the mutual fund or returns on investment in the mutual fund. Top ten holdings, sector allocation and geographic allocation as at 7/31/2026. Top ten holdings based on % of net asset value. Sector allocation based on % of net asset value. Geographic allocation based on % of net asset value and excludes cash. Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Cash and cash equivalents include non-portfolio assets and/or liabilities.

    The rate of return is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of the investment fund or returns on investment in the investment fund.

    The monthly distribution amount may be adjusted by the Manager without notice throughout the year as market conditions change. Monthly distributions will be comprised of net income, net realized capital gains and/or return of capital. Any net income and/or net realized capital gains earned by the Fund in excess of the monthly distribution will be distributed to unitholders annually in December.

    The Fund is generally exposed to the following risks: Active management risk; Borrowing risk; Capital depletion risk; Collateral risk; Commodity risk; Concentration risk; Currency risk; Cybersecurity risk; Derivatives risk; Energy risk; Exchanged traded funds risk; Foreign investment risk; Inflation risk; Interest rate risk; Leverage risk; Liquidity risk; Market risk; Performance fee risk; Regulatory risk; Rule 144A and other exempted securities risk; Securities lending, repurchase and reverse repurchase transactions risk; Series risk; Short selling risk; Small capitalization natural resource company risk; Specific issuer risk; Tax risk; Absence of an active market for ETF Series risk; Halted trading of ETF Series risk; Trading price of ETF Series risk.

    Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to a number of funds (collectively, the “Funds”). Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees (if any), and other expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. The indicated rates of return for series F units of the Funds for the period ended 7/31/2026 are based on the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to purchase securities of the Funds.

    The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not a resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Fund may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction.

    Ninepoint Partners LP: Toll Free: 1.866.299.9906. Dealer Services: CIBC Mellon GSSC Record Keeping Services: Toll Free: 1.877.358.0540

    Disclaimer: This advertisement is for information purposes only and should not be relied upon as investment advice. We strongly recommend that you consult your investment professional for a comprehensive review of your personal financial situation before undertaking any investment strategy. Information herein is subject to change without notice and Ninepoint is not responsible for any inaccuracies or to update this information. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation by anyone in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Prospective investors who are not resident in Canada should contact their financial advisor to determine whether securities of the Funds may be lawfully sold in their jurisdiction. 

    Ninepoint Partners LP is the investment manager to the Ninepoint Funds (collectively, the ''Funds''). Important information about these Funds, including their investment objectives and strategies, purchase options, and applicable management fees, performance fees (if any), and expenses, is contained in their prospectus or offering memorandum. Please read these documents carefully before investing. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees, other charges and expenses all may be associated with investing in the Funds. Investment funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.