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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 1.22.2026
Key Takeaways
  • We believe energy remains in a multi-year bull market, with oil and natural gas leading the way.
  • US shale growth has likely peaked, removing the world’s largest source of marginal supply.
  • OPEC spare capacity is far smaller than advertised, limiting the market’s buffer.
  • Years of underinvestment set the stage for future supply tightness.
  • Oil and gas fundamentals remain strong despite short-term volatility.

January 22, 2026

In this week’s update, Eric outlines why he believes global energy markets remain in the early stages of a multi-year bull market, with oil and natural gas standing out as the most compelling opportunities.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Energy’s Stealth Bull Market – Ownership of energy stocks remains near all-time lows, signaling we are still early in the cycle.
  • The End of US Shale Growth – US shale production has likely peaked, removing the world’s largest source of marginal supply.
  • OPEC Spare Capacity Overstated – True productive spare capacity may be closer to ~1.5 million barrels per day.
  • Supply Crisis in the Making – Years of underinvestment and weak reserve replacement point to future shortages.
  • Demand Still Growing – Even the IEA now expects global oil demand to grow well into the 2040s.
  • Natural Gas Structural Upside – LNG demand and coal-to-gas switching support higher long-term prices.
  • Canada vs. US Positioning – Preference for Canadian oil producers and US natural gas producers.
  • Cash Returns Matter – Energy companies remain profitable at current prices, sustaining dividends and buybacks.

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