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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 7.02.2026
Key Takeaways
  • Global inventories have swung from a 177-million-barrel surplus to a 141-million-barrel deficit relative to the five-year average, yet oil sits in the high 60s below pre-war levels.
  • China forfeited roughly 450 million barrels of imports in recent months, largely offsetting lost Middle Eastern production and delaying the expected price spike.
  • With roughly 9.4 million barrels per day of production still shut in and energy stocks discounting roughly $60 WTI, Eric sees meaningful upside ahead.

July 02, 2026

In this week's edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, explains why oil is now trading below pre-war levels despite historically low inventories, and what he believes comes next for oil markets and energy equities.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Oil Below Pre-War Levels – Oil sits in the high 60s, below pre-war levels, despite global inventories at their lowest levels in recorded history for this time of year.
  • Inventory Swing – From pre-war to now, inventories have swung from a 177-million-barrel surplus to a 141-million-barrel deficit relative to the five-year average.
  • SPR at Historic Lows – US SPR now sits at 325 million barrels, the lowest since June 3rd, 1983.
  • The China Factor – China's oil imports are down 4.9 million barrels per day year over year for the month of June, having forfeited roughly 450 million barrels of imports.
  • Crack Spreads at Record Highs – US crack spreads sit at $57 per barrel, up 182% year to date, just off the all-time high of $59 set in March.
  • Energy Equities – Eric believes energy stocks are currently discounting roughly $60 WTI and sees meaningful upside from current levels.

Historical Commentary

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