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Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 7.10.2026
Key Takeaways
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic has halted. Following renewed US strikes and Iranian attacks on vessels, only one ship entered the strait last night versus a normal ~50 per day. Of the 109 non-Iranian oil vessels once stuck inside, only one remains.
  • Inbound vessels are the metric that matters. Outbound ships represent the last spurt of stored supply; only normalized inbound traffic can restore curtailed Middle Eastern production, pegged at roughly 8.6 million barrels per day.
  • Exports remain deeply impaired. Even with workarounds via Fujairah and the Red Sea, Middle Eastern exports are down roughly 4.6–4.7 million barrels per day — and likely to worsen.

July 9, 2026

In this week's edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, explains that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted following renewed strikes, with inbound vessel counts now the key data point for Middle Eastern supply. Eric discusses shrinking global safety buffers — the US SPR at 319 million barrels, onshore inventories near record lows — record refined product crack spreads, signs of a Chinese import inflection, and the wave of optimism coming out of Stampede as Ottawa backstops a proposed one-million-barrel-per-day pipeline.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Strait of Hormuz – Inbound vessels are the critical metric, as they are the only remedy to curtailed Middle Eastern production.
  • Export Impact – Middle Eastern exports down ~4.6–4.7 million barrels per day.
  • SPR Drawdown – US SPR at 319 million barrels vs. a ~300 million minimum operating level.
  • Crack Spreads – Record refinery margins and refined product tightness.
  • The China Factor – Easing teapot refinery restrictions signal a potential demand inflection.
  • Ottawa Steps Up – Federal backstop of a proposed 1 million bbl/d Canadian pipeline.
  • More Egress – South Bow's Prairie Connector/Bridger pipeline (~504,000 bbl/d, expandable to 900,000).

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