Video Commentary
Print/PDF Print/PDF

Ninepoint Energy Market Update

Ninepoint Energy Market Update - 8.20.2026
Key Takeaways
  • Global oil inventories sit near record lows after absorbing 300 million barrels from strategic reserves, with Middle Eastern production down 8 million barrels per day and no relief in sight.
  • China is returning to the market after depleting invisible refined product stocks, which combined with record refined product crack spreads will drive crude oil higher as inventories continue to decline.

August 20, 2026

In this week's edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, returns to address the critical question: how does this end? With global oil inventories near record lows after absorbing 300 million barrels from strategic reserves, Middle Eastern production down 8 million barrels per day, and China beginning to return to the market, Eric explains why the oil market remains far more precarious than most understand.

Key Topics Covered:

  • 1.7 Billion Barrels Forfeited – Middle Eastern production lost to date since the Strait disruption began.
  • Middle Eastern Production Down 8 Million Barrels Per Day – Current curtailed production levels based on OilX satellite data.
    US SPR at 293 Million Barrels – Near the 300 million barrel floor with limited capacity to respond further.
  • Strait Exports Overstated – Trump administration claiming 10+ million barrels per day; actual estimates closer to 5 million barrels per day based on vessel tracking data.
  • China Imports Rebounding – August showing roughly 600,000 barrel per day increase over July; China depleted invisible refined product stocks and is now returning to the market.
  • Oil Price Now $88 – Starting to better reflect underlying fundamentals after months of undervaluation.
  • Iran's Strategic Position – Iran has decided control of the Strait gives more strategic leverage than possession of a nuclear weapon and will not give it up willingly.

Historical Commentary

View All
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, explains that despite the insane volatility of the past week, the critical signal remains the US SPR now sitting at 307 million barrels near the 300 million barrel floor. Eric discusses the geopolitical noise masking the real story - inbound vessel counts to the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's decision to control the strait rather than pursue nuclear weapons, direct Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure including Abqaiq, and why only two vessels were inbound last night versus the 40 to 45 needed to restore Middle Eastern production.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition, Eric explains that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted following renewed strikes, with inbound vessel counts now the key data point for Middle Eastern supply. Eric discusses shrinking global safety buffers — the US SPR at 319 million barrels, onshore inventories near record lows — record refined product crack spreads, signs of a Chinese import inflection, and the wave of optimism coming out of Stampede as Ottawa backstops a proposed one-million-barrel-per-day pipeline.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition, Eric returns with a detailed update on why oil is now trading below pre-war levels despite historically low inventories and what he believes comes next.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition, Eric shares his observations following the recent oil selloff and explains why he believes the market remains too complacent about the supply situation.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition, Eric explains why he believes global oil markets are now facing a critical shortage and why the timeline has shifted from months to weeks.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric shares key takeaways from recent meetings in Houston and explains why he believes global oil markets may be approaching a critical tipping point.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week's edition, Eric discusses the extreme volatility in oil markets as headlines around a potential Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding continue to pressure crude prices.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric examines the ongoing oil market disruption tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and why he believes the market still has not fully priced in the scale of the global supply shock.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric breaks down why the current global energy crisis may be far more severe and longer lasting than markets appear to expect.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric discusses the worsening global energy crisis and why the oil market may still be underestimating the scale and duration of the current supply shock.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric discusses the escalating energy crisis impacting global oil, LNG, and refined product markets following major disruptions in Iran, Qatar, and key Middle East export routes.
    Sector Investments
  • Ninepoint Energy Market Update
    In this week’s edition, Eric discusses the rapidly evolving geopolitical crisis impacting global energy markets following strikes involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.
    Sector Investments